IRM Energy is doubling down on the CNG segment, projecting continued robust volume growth in FY26, driven by CNG vehicle additions and expansion of its station network. The company aims to add 50 new CNG stations in FY26.
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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
We cut volume estimates for FY26E/27E by 13%/16% to factor in lower growth across all three segments.
We also reduced Ebitda assumptions for FY26E/27E from Rs 8.0/8.2 to Rs 5.1/5.5 respectively owing to royalty payments, lower volume growth due to roll-back of NGT order in Fatehgarh Sahib geographical area, reduction in APM gas allocation, and competitive prices of alternate fuels, which shall curb any potential price hike in the near term.
At the current market price, we estimate it factors in an Ebitda per unit of only Rs 4.6/scm over FY26-34E (as compared to Rs 4.72/scm reported for Q1 FY26). We reiterate Buy with a target price of Rs 440/share.
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