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Motilal Oswal Report
After scaling new highs of 23,111 in May’24, the benchmark ended its three-month winning streak. The index oscillated 1,290 points before closing 74 points (or 0.3%) lower month-on-month at 22,531. The Nifty is up 3.7% in CY24 YTD. Midcaps outperformed large caps by 1.9%, while smallcaps underperformed by 1.6%. Similarly, in CY24 YTD, midcaps and smallcaps have outperformed large caps and have risen 12% and 10.3%, respectively, versus a 3.7% rise for the Nifty.
DIIs recorded the ten consecutive month of inflows in May-24 at $6.7 billion. FIIs recorded outflows of $3 billion in May-24. FII outflows into Indian equities stand at $2.8 billion in CY24YTD versus inflows of $21.4 billion in CY23. DII inflows into equities in CY24YTD continue to be strong at $25 billion versus $ 22.3 billion in CY23.
Among the key global markets, the US (+5%), Taiwan (+4%), the UK (+2%), ended higher in local currency terms. However, Russia MICEX (-9%), Indonesia (-4%), Brazil (-3%), Korea (-2%), China (-1%) ended lower month-on-month in May-24. Over the last 12 months, the MSCI India Index (+31%) has significantly outperformed the MSCI EM Index (+9%). Over the last 10 years, the MSCI India Index has outperformed the MSCI EM index by a robust 197%.
India is currently experiencing a mini-Goldilocks moment due to solid macroeconomic conditions, healthy corporate earnings, peaking interest rates, moderate inflation print, and ongoing policy momentum. Nifty is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 19.2x, at a 5% discount to its own long-period average.
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