Bikaji commands market leadership in Rajasthan, Assam and Bihar; it currently contributes ~66.6% to overall revenues (versus 67.3% in Q3 FY24). These states have reported 10.8% growth in Q3. Over the years, the company has gradually expanded its footprint across India, with operations across 25 states and four union territories
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Dolat Capital Report
Bikaji Foods International Ltd.’s Q3 FY25 profitability came below our estimate. Revenue grew by 14.5% YoY to Rs. 7.1 billion with 3.0% volume growth. Nonetheless, excluding the consumer offers of 10% extra on traditional snacks in the base quarter, volume growth was 7.9%.
We believe that volume growth will be the primary driver of revenue growth in the near term.
Due to inflationary pressure on raw material, gross margin contracted by 260bps to 29.0%. To mitigate raw material inflation, Bikaji implemented selective price increases. However, higher operating expenses led to a 430bps contraction in Ebitdam to 7.8%.
We have downward revised our FY25/26/27E EPS estimates by 26.3/8.3/8.7% to Rs 8.3/12.2/14.7 to factor in Q3 performance and elevated commodity prices which are likely to impact next three-four months performance. However, we believe that the margins would normalize with price hikes and resurgence of volume growth.
Given recent fall in the stock price (24% since our last report), we upgrade our rating to ‘Buy’ with revised target price of Rs 811 valuing at 55 times FY27E.
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