Ambuja Cement has reiterated its capacity target of 140 mtpa by FY28E. After acquiring Holcim’s stake in ACC and Ambuja Cement, the Group’s capacity increased from 68 mtpa in Sep’22 to 102.8 mtpa currently. Acquisitions of Sanghi Industries (6.1mtpa), Asian Cement (1.5mtpa), Penna Cement (10mtpa), and Orient Cement (8.5mtpa) have supported progress toward the 140mtpa capacity target. In FY26, installed capacity will increase by ~19mtpa to ~118mtpa, and further to 140mtpa by FY28E.
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Motilal Oswal Report
Ambuja Cement Ltd. has reiterated its capacity target of 140 mtpa and Ebitda/tonne target of Rs 1,500 by FY28. So far, capacity growth has been largely driven by the inorganic route. However, in FY26, expansion will primarily be organic, with multiple projects underway across various locations.
The company is also expected to prioritize integrating acquired assets. Profitability improvement will be driven by ongoing cost savings and a higher share of premium products.
We estimate the company’s consolidated revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGR at ~17%/35%/36% over FY25-27, albeit on a low base. We estimate Ebitda/tonne to increase to Rs 960/Rs 1090 in FY26/FY27 vs Rs 768 in FY25.
Ambuja Cement (consolidated) trades at 21x/17x FY26E/FY27E EV/Ebitda and $154/$147 enterprise value/tonne.
We reiterate our Buy rating with a target price of Rs 700 (valuing the stock at 20x FY27E EV/Ebitda).
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