Adani Green Q4 Result Review: Onto Steeper Trajectory, Says ICICI Securities, Maintains 'Buy', Sees 25% Upside

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ICICI Securities Report

Adani Green Energy Ltd. has the strongest track record of developing renewables portfolio. It also has the resources to develop up to 30GW at a single location in Khavda. It has been miles ahead in the competition. It has a capex to Ebitda ratio of close to ~7.5x indicating high capital efficiency.

We value the asset with an EV to Ebitda of 16x – implying a doubling of the asset from 30GW to 60GW in the next eight years. The multiple factors include –

1. Adani Green Energy’s strong track record of execution with 14.2GW operational capacity,

2. superior capital efficiency,

3. access to funds, and

4. quality solar and wind resources on a large scale.

The stock is trading at 12x locked-in Ebitda. We maintain Buy with a target price of Rs 1,150.

Key risks:

1. Delay in commissioning of under-development capacity; and

2. lowerthan-estimated generation.

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