Monsoon 2025 Likely To Reach Kerala in 4-5 Days: IMD; Check Latest Forecast

The monsoon season this year is likely to hit Kerala earlier than the expected date of May 27, with favourable conditions developing over the next few days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday.

According to the IMD, the conditions are likely to become favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala within the next four to five days. This indicates that the monsoon could arrive before the IMD’s earlier forecast of May 27. If this happens, it will mark a further deviation from the usual onset date of June 1.

In a post on X, the weather agency said that the monsoon is also expected to advance into more parts of the South Arabian Sea during this week. It will progress further in the remaining areas of the Maldives and the Comorin region, and some parts of Lakshadweep, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. 

Moreover, a subsequent progress is likely in parts of the South and Central Bay of Bengal, Northeast Bay of Bengal and sections of the northeastern states. 

This year, apart from the early arrival, the monsoon rain is likely to remain above the average range. In April, the IMD predicted a strong probability (59%) of southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall to be above normal or higher.

"India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105% of the long-period average of 87 cm," India Meteorological Department (IMD) chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra had noted at a press conference.

In its regional forecast bulletin at 2:30 p.m. on Monday, the IMD also warned of a potential cyclonic circulation formation over the Arabian Sea on Wednesday.

"An upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over eastcentral Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast around 21st May. Under its influence, a Low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region around 22nd May. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwards and intensify further," the IMD said.

This is likely to bring rainfall in Maharashtra-Goa-Karnataka-Kerala coasts and the Lakshadweep island area. The IMD has warned of a likely formation of depression in the region in the next 72 to 96 hours.

The weather agency also said that the existing upper air cyclonic circulation over the west central and southwest Bay of Bengal has shifted slightly. “Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal lay over central Bay of Bengal adjoining south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level, tilting southwestwards with height at 0300 UTC of May 20.”