Tariff turmoil and uncertainty gripped markets on Thursday after a US trade court dealt a blow to President Donald Trump's tariffs on Wednesday. Investors were initially enthused but this was short-lived as a US appeals court swooped in to reinstate the duties just before Wall Street closed.
While the administration may explore alternative legal routes to enforce its tariffs, the ruling and subsequent appeal could complicate trade talks with key partners and alter the diplomatic landscape. The case is likely headed to the US Supreme Court, adding another layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, a second US federal judge has ruled against several of Trump's tariffs, fuelling further debate.
In other global news, South Korea's early presidential election on June 3 will lead to the winner facing the challenge of balancing trade-heavy ties with China and security reliance on the US. Despite conventional expectations of prioritising the US, South Korea's economic dependence on China and liberal leadership may mean a potential foreign policy shift toward closer engagement with China.
This edition also looks at the yen carry trade unwind possibility. At the time of this piece being written, we would be on the cusp of India's GDP data being released as well. Packed week gone and a packed weekend ahead. Here are the key talking points this week.
While the administration may explore alternative legal routes to enforce its tariffs, the ruling and subsequent appeal could complicate trade talks with key partners and alter the diplomatic landscape. The case is likely headed to the US Supreme Court, adding another layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, a second US federal judge has ruled against several of Trump's tariffs, fuelling further debate.
In other global news, South Korea's early presidential election on June 3 will lead to the winner facing the challenge of balancing trade-heavy ties with China and security reliance on the US. Despite conventional expectations of prioritising the US, South Korea's economic dependence on China and liberal leadership may mean a potential foreign policy shift toward closer engagement with China.
This edition also looks at the yen carry trade unwind possibility. At the time of this piece being written, we would be on the cusp of India's GDP data being released as well. Packed week gone and a packed weekend ahead. Here are the key talking points this week.
No Uncertainty In India's Appetite
The week gone saw a clutch of brokerage conferences and this will continue in the upcoming week as well. Nirmal Bang's Rahul Arora, in a conversation with NDTV Profit, spoke of large institutional interest in midcaps, with stocks like Waaree drawing substantial investor interest.
In a note ahead of their investor conference, BofA's Amish Shah wrote of how India ranks as the top country globally to provide high number of stock compounders, a trend which they expect to continue, but that they are cautious on Indian markets in the near term as valuations seem full and markets are ignoring risks of likely slowing global growth. He added that BofA sees no upside to their Nifty year-end target of 25,000 given the recent rally.
Eyes out on the takeaways from the Morgan Stanley Conference next week, where Ridham Desai and team will house the best voices in the business world for their outlook on India and the World. The key takeaways of the conference will be on the NDTV Profit next week.
Yen Carry Trade Uncertainty Ahead?
Let's face it, Japanese bond investors are in a tough spot. The country's debt-to-GDP ratio is a whopping 250% - that's double that of US, and we've seen how that's been received by Moody's.
Meanwhile, a major shift is happening in Asian bond markets. China's bonds have been on a tear, and now Japanese 30-year yields are significantly higher than China's. The Bank of Japan, which owns over half of the country's sovereign debt, is reducing its purchases after years of keeping yields low. But this has left a gap that private investors aren't filling.
Here's the thing: if Japanese bond yields keep rising, it could have far-reaching consequences. Japanese investors might start bringing their money home, and we could see a repeat of last year's yen carry trade meltdown
Uncertain Bromance(s)?
US President Donald Trump warned in a social media post that is "playing with fire". Russia has in recent days escalated its aerial attacks against Ukraine, and Trump is considering new sanctions on Moscow, which CNN reported may come soon. On the side though, a Trump envoy says Russian concern over NATO enlargement is fair.
And while the street thinks that the bromance with Elon Musk ended too, the press conference in the White House with Elon Musk might just have doused some rumours. Or maybe not. We will know when we see it.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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