US Fed Meeting Live: What Happened At The Last Fed Meeting?
The Fed kept its key federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth meeting in a row.
Two members dissented — the first dissent this year — voting for a 25 bps rate cut.
Officials said rates remain "higher-than-usual" to fight stubborn inflation.
The Fed also flagged concerns that Trump's tariffs could further fuel price pressures.
US Fed Meeting Live: How Will Rate Cut Decision Impact Gold Prices
Gold is poised for further gains as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut in nine months, with analysts forecasting new record highs amid easing monetary policy, robust central bank demand and lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
Gold, the safe-haven asset, has climbed to $3,694 per ounce internationally and reached a record Rs 1,10,500 on MCX, with eyes on the $3,700 mark.
"Gold always soars whenever the Fed starts cutting rates, though in the short term, there could be some profit booking based on ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ trading, FOMC’s dot plot, voting pattern and language,” said Praveen Singh, head of commodities and currencies at Mirae Asset ShareKhan.
US Fed Meeting Live: How Will Rate Cut Decision Impact Indian PSU Bank Stocks?
US Federal Reserve's rate cut will help the banks by spurring credit growth and market sentiment. "This easing could amplify the PSU banks’ rally in the coming week. However, short-term market reactions may remain cautious as investors closely watch the global cues," added Ghawalkar.
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US Fed Meeting Live: Markets At A Glance
As of 10 p.m. IST, here's how the indices are trading:
Dow Jones: 0.54% up
S&P 500: 0.15% down
Nasdaq: 0.46% down
Jerome Powell Fed Rate Cut: Fringe Scenarios
If both the dovish and hawkish stance on a 25 basis point cut are out of the window, then these are the fringe scenarios JPMorgan sees:
No cut (4% chance): S&P 500 could slide 1–2%, testing 6,450.
Jumbo 50-basis-point cut (7.5% chance): Markets could swing either way, with a 1.5% move. A surprise half-point cut might spark fears the Fed sees deeper economic trouble, or relief that policymakers are acting decisively.
Jerome Powell Fed Rate Cut: JPMorgan Also Proposes A Hawkish Stance
JPMorgan also sees a hawkish 25 basis point cut as its base case, with a 40% probability.
A rate cut accompanied by hawkish commentary could prove a buzzkill. If Chair Jerome Powell emphasises labour market risks or downplays inflation concerns, stocks may tread water or slip up to 0.5%, believes JPMorgan.
Jerome Powell Fed Rate Cut: JPMorgan's Base Case
JPMorgan sees a dovish 25 basis point cut as its base case, with a 47.5% probability.
If the Fed trims rates and signals accommodative policy, Wall Street stocks could see an immediate 1% bump, taking the S&P 500 to roughly 6,650, as per JP Morgan. But the firm warns that the initial euphoria could fade. A "sell-the-news" effect, weaker corporate buybacks, and quarter-end rebalancing could drag equities as much as 5% lower into month-end.
Still, the bank sees opportunity in any pullback, with overweight calls on mega-cap tech, AI plays, utilities, healthcare, and biotech.
US Fed Meeting Live: More Rate Cuts Lined Up?
Most economists expect the Fed to signal two rate cuts in 2025, matching June's projections, meaning one more cut in either October or December.
But over 40% of economists see the Fed penciling in three cuts this year, with fresh projections set to show policymakers' outlook on inflation and jobs, as per news agency Bloomberg.
US Fed Meeting Live: Potential Fed Dissents Loom
Even with a quarter-point cut widely expected, officials may split. Some want a deeper reduction, while others prefer holding steady.
Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, had opposed July's pause, citing labor market worries.
US Fed Meeting Live: Committee Shake-Up Under Scrutiny
While markets focus on the Fed's expected rate cut, the makeup of its rate-setting committee is under the spotlight.
Trump ally Stephen Miran was sworn in Tuesday, just in time for the meeting, though critics question his independence since he only took unpaid leave from his White House role.
Meanwhile, an appeals court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her post as she challenges Trump's bid to fire her. The administration plans to take the case to the Supreme Court.
US Fed Meeting Live: The Macro Picture
The backdrop for the FoMC September meet is pretty fragile: the US economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, the weakest print since the pandemic rebound, while unemployment rose to its highest level in nearly four years. A string of downward revisions to earlier reports has further deepened concerns about labor market momentum.
US Fed Chief Powell himself acknowledged at Jackson Hole that risks are skewed: "In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation."
US Fed Meet Live: What's The Probability Of A 25 Basis-Points Cut?
Traders are betting overwhelmingly on a small cut. CME's FedWatch tool pegs the probability of a 25 basis points cut at 94%, with only a slim chance of a deeper 50 basis points move. The Fed's key rate currently sits between 4.25% and 4.5%.
US Fed Meet Live: Dow Jones Up 200 Points, S&P 500 Rises Ahead Of Meet
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped around 200 points minutes into the trade, as the market factored in a likely rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The wider index, S&P 500, was trading 0.04% up at 6,609.32, whereas Nasdaq Composite edged 0.17% or 50.77 points lower at 22,287.23.
US Fed Meet Live: FOMC To Deliver Sixth Policy Verdict For 2025 Today
This is the sixth policy verdict by the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell-led Federal Open Market Committee for 2025, coming after the Aug. 1 deadline when US tariff rates were implemented for most nations.
US Fed Meet Live: 25 Basis Points Rate Cut On The Cards
Hello, and welcome to NDTV Profit's coverage on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. This follows a two-day review meeting to deliberate on the central bank's benchmark interest rate verdict and the state of the US economy.
The US Federal Reserve is poised to deliver its first interest rate cut since 2024, with markets almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point move. Stay tuned for all the live updates.
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