Tata Motors Sees Entry-Level EVs Matching Petrol Car Prices By 2030

India’s electric vehicle market is poised for rapid growth as new players enter and falling technology costs make battery-powered cars more affordable, said a top executive at Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd.

Electric models now account for more than 5% of new sales in India, up from 2.5% a year earlier, Chief Executive Officer Shailesh Chandra told Bloomberg News. He expects the company — the country’s largest EV maker — to get nearly a third of its sales from EVs by 2030, reiterating a target from last year.

India, one of the few growth hotspots for EVs as China and Europe slow down, is drawing global investment and competitive offerings that could push down costs faster. 

The arrival of Tesla Inc. and Vietnam’s Vinfast Auto Ltd. this year, alongside Chinese and homegrown rivals, signals a turning point for the country’s auto industry, with products spanning affordable to luxury EVs. Tata Motors, parent of Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc, straddles both ends of that spectrum. 

Competition is already eroding Tata’s dominance. In the first eight months of this year, Tata’s EV market share fell to 35% from 59% a year ago, while JSW MG Motor India Pvt. now makes up 30% versus 25% last year, BloombergNEF wrote in an Oct. 3 report. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. cornered 22.6% as of August, the report added.

“It’s a good thing because that is what is creating excitement in the market,” Chandra said in an interview at the launch of Tata’s new Sierra SUV on Tuesday. “A set of competitive products from multiple brands builds confidence in the category.”

Cost Curve

Chandra said EV costs will fall as automakers integrate key components beyond lithium-ion cells. Power and control systems that once required multiple parts are now being merged into compact modules, reducing manufacturing complexity and boosting efficiency.

“What used to be multiple separate parts are now being merged into single units,” he said. “The industry has moved from one function in one unit to several combined in one, which is driving down costs.”

The inflection point, he added, will come likely by 2030 when entry-level EVs match gasoline cars on price while offering around 400 kilometers (about 249 miles) of range. Most affordable EVs currently cost 25%–30% more and deliver under 300 kilometers per charge.

To be sure, EV momentum in India will face some competition from hybrid technologies creating cars that can run on fossil fuels as well as batteries — a practical alternative especially in India where charging infrastructure is still not very robust. Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Corp. are among the automakers planning hybrid offerings.

India also implemented consumption tax cuts in September that made conventional gasoline cars cheaper.

The BNEF report, however, estimates that EV sales will rise as automakers expand their EV portfolio and battery prices continue to decline and may exceed 650,000 units by 2030.

Tata Motors remains the leader in India’s EV segment due to its portfolio of smaller, affordable models. The company aims to bolster its market share to 45% to 50% through a broader lineup spanning premium and mass-market products, Chandra said.

The new Tata Sierra, which revives a cult SUV from the 1990s, has been positioned as a “premium mid-SUV.” An electric version is slated for release early next year, underscoring Tata’s bet on electrification across categories.