India May Buy More Russian Oil Despite Tariff Risk: Should You Be Cautious On OMC Stocks?

India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) and privately-held refiners will likely boost oil imports from Russia in the coming months, as trade talks with the US drag on and discounts widen amid sufficient volume supplies. According to a report by Bloomberg, discounts on Urals crude loading in Nov. are $2-to-$2.50 a barrel to Brent, making it attractive for buyers.

For Oct., the ship-tracking data point to an uptick in arrivals. Crude oil imports from Russia could average about 1.7 million barrels per day this month, according to Kpler Ltd. As per Bloomberg, that would be about 6% higher on-month, but slightly lower than last year’s pace.

This comes even as India faces a risk of a potentially higher tariff rate from the US after White House threatened to impose a 'penalty' due to India's continued Russian crude oil purchases. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia (OPEC+) announced that it will raise the oil output from Nov. by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd).

In Aug., the US imposed a punitive 50% levy on its imports of Indian goods in order to pressurize India to curb its appetite for Russian oil. However, it has refrained from a similar action against China, another major Asian buyer of Russian crude oil. Since then, government officials have clarified that India's deals on crude oil are price-driven and would continue.

Despite that, India has signaled it wants to buy more US energy amid talks with the US. As per Bloomberg, it remains unclear whether Indian refiners will continue to maximize purchases of discounted Russian crude given the talks with the US. India's negotiators described meetings with the US as “constructive”, despite the demand that India must stop buying Russian oil.

In the last one month, India's state-run OMCs including Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd (HPCL) have jumped 9-15% in trade. This is because the Petroleum Minister met analysts to address the issues that affect valuations of PSU Oil & Gas companies

However, analysts warn that the upcoming July-Sept. quarter (Q2 FY26) could turn out to be a weak quarter for OMCs. So far, lower refining margin, lower marketing margin, and stable crude prices have played out for OMCs.

However, Brent averaged at $67/bbl in Q1FY26 and $68/bbl in Q2FY26. The current price is trading at $65/bbl, which means means limited inventory impact. Two of the biggest concerns for OMCs are a potential cut in retail fuel prices or an excise duty hike. In both cases, marketing margins would get impacted.

The above worries may becomes a reality as the festive season and the upcoming state election may make up for the GST revenue loss. In the past, ahead of elections, OMCs have cut fuel prices. The next state election is scheduled for Nov. 2025 in Bihar.

The OPEC+ cartel has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5% of global demand. The shift in policy after years of cuts is designed to regain market share from rivals such as US shale producers. OPEC views the global economic outlook as steady and market fundamentals as healthy because of low oil inventories.

OPEC+ output cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: Voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and a further two million bpd by the whole group.

The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts - 2.2 million bpd - by the end of September. For October, the producers started removing the second layer of 1.65 million bpd with the increase of 137,000 bpd. The OPEC+ cartel will meet again on Nov. 2, 2025.

Global crude oil prices rose 1% on Oct. 8 due to the OPEC+ supply hike, but concerns of oversupply limited gains. Brent crude futures rose 82 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.27 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 85 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.58. Back home, crude oil futures for an Oct. 20 expiry, traded 1.57% higher at Rs 5,566/barrel on the multi commodity exchange.

''WTI crude oil traded in a tight range yesterday before closing flat at $61.7 per barrel, as traders balanced concerns about a potential market surplus and weakening demand against ongoing supply-side risks,'' said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities.

Ukraine has reportedly targeted at least 15 Russian refineries over the past two months, forcing a cutback in domestic refining and leading to a surge in Russian crude exports. "Today, WTI crude climbed above $62 per barrel following a mixed API inventory report, which indicated stronger product demand despite rising crude inventories," added Chainwala.

Goldman Sachs said it saw a global inventory build of 1.5 million bpd in the last quarter despite strong seasonal demand. The bank expects a surplus of two million bpd over the period from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026. However, it sees an upside risk for prices from declines to Russian production.