Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is likely to retain power in Tamil Nadu, according to NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls. It shows 120 seats out of 234 for the MK Stalin-led party, 77 for rival AIADMK, and 36 for the debutant Vijay's TVK.
But Axis My India have forecasted TVK and their allies to win a huge 98-120 seats. They have projected the DMK and its allies to win 92-110 seats, while AIADMK and their allies to get only 22-23 seats. If this holds, Vijay could be the winner in the race for Tamil Nadu.
JVC, though, has projected AIADMK and allies to win with 128-147 seats, while DMK and allies will get 75-95 seats. TVK will get only 8-15 seats, according to the poll.
But the rest of the polls have predicted victory for DMK. Peoples Pulse have projected Stalin and allies to win 125-145 seats, and the AIADMK and allies would receive 65-80 seats.
Peoples Insight have given the DMK and allies 120-140 seats, while the AIADMK and allies could win 60-70 seats. Praja Poll have said the DMK and their allies will get 148-168 seats, and the AIADMK and their allies might get 61-81 seats. TVK is projected to win anywhere from 1 to 9 seats.
P-Marq have predicted DMK and allies with 125-145 seats, AIADMK and allies with 65-85 seats, and actor Vijay's TVK party with 16-26 seats. Matrize has said DMK and allies could win 122-132 seats, AIADMK and allies to get 87-100 seats, and TVK to secure 10-12 seats.
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Kamakhya Analytics have said that it will be a very close race in Tamil Nadu. According to them, DMK and allies will get 78-95 seats, and AIADMK with their allies will get 68-84 seats. TVK and its allies have also been projected to win 67-81 seats. This puts the actor's new party in firmly contention to play a huge role as long as the exit poll results hold.
Here's what the NDTV Poll Of Exit Polls show:
Source | DMK+ | ADMK+ | TVK+ | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Axis My India | 92-110 | 22-23 | 98-120 | 0-0 |
JVC | 75-95 | 128-147 | 8-15 | 0-0 |
KAMAKHYA ANALYTICS | 78-95 | 68-84 | 67-81 | 0-0 |
Matrize | 122-132 | 87-100 | 10-12 | 0-6 |
P-Marq | 125-145 | 65-85 | 16-26 | 1-6 |
Peoples Insight | 120-140 | 60-70 | 30-40 | 0-4 |
Peoples Pulse | 125-145 | 65-80 | 18-24 | 2-6 |
Praja poll | 148-168 | 61-81 | 1-9 | 0-0 |
Polling for all 234 Assembly constituencies in Tamil Nadu was conducted in a single phase on April 23 under tight security arrangements, with the state recording a strong voter turnout of 84.29%.
Out of a total electorate of 6,28,23,749 voters, participation remained robust across both urban and rural regions. To form the government, a party or alliance must cross the majority mark of 118 seats.
The 2026 election is shaping up to be a closely watched contest, with Chief Minister MK Stalin seeking a second consecutive term for the DMK-led alliance. Tamil Nadu's political landscape has traditionally witnessed a direct contest between the DMK and the AIADMK, often resulting in alternating mandates.
However, this time, the entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, has added a new dynamic, making the contest more competitive.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance secured a decisive victory, winning 159 seats, broadly in line with exit poll predictions. The DMK alone clinched 133 seats, marking its first absolute majority in 25 years and paving the way for MK Stalin to assume office as the chief minister. The AIADMK and its allies won 75 seats.
Opinion poll surveys had indicated a tighter race. Most polling agencies, including CVoter and Vakkucheck, have given a slight edge to the DMK-led bloc, projecting around 138-142 seats and assigning it a win probability of about 62%. However, the AIADMK-led front is seen making gains in key regions such as northern Tamil Nadu and the Kongu belt.
At the same time, Vijay's TVK is projected to secure a vote share of 5-8%, particularly among first-time voters. While these projections suggest a competitive triangular contest, the final outcome will only be known once votes are counted on May 4.
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