Iran's Freeze On Nuclear Inspections Prompts UN-US Crisis Talks

International Atomic Energy Agency officials will travel to Washington next week to confer with the US as concerns grow about their inability to account for Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb grade uranium, according to diplomats with knowledge of the situation. 

The trip has been planned after IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi’s top inspector failed in a recent attempt to win Iranian approval to resume monitoring after Israel and Iran’s 12-day war in June, said three diplomats, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. 

The move comes as the United Nations nuclear watchdog grows increasingly despondent about the prospect of returning inspectors to Iran following their expulsion during the June conflict, which effectively ended international oversight of the extent and purpose of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities.

Iran continues to insist that chemical and radiological hazards at sites bombed by the US and Israel remain too unsafe to resume IAEA inspections. While Tehran suggested to IAEA safeguards chief Massimo Aparo on Aug. 11 that visits may soon be possible to sites unaffected by the strikes — such as the Russian-built nuclear-power plant on the Persian Gulf — access to Iran’s main nuclear-fuel complex remains a no go, according to the diplomats. 

“We have not reached the point of cutting off cooperation with the agency, but future cooperation will certainly not resemble the past,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi told state-run Islamic Republic News Agency in an interview published Wednesday. 

The location of Iran’s 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium hasn’t been established since the June 13 war began and Iran informed inspectors it was ready to move the near-bomb grade material to an undeclared location. The inability to verify the state or location of that inventory has deepened uncertainty over whether the attacks achieved their objectives of destroying Iran’s capability to build nuclear weapons.

Even if satellite images show that parts of the Islamic Republic’s enrichment program have been “obliterated,” as US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said, Iran retains the material and expertise needed to pursue weapons, should Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei give instructions to do so. 

Iran has denied its nuclear program is for military purposes and both IAEA inspectors and US intelligence communities have confirmed the absence of a weapons program in the country since the early 2000s. 

The IAEA is compiling a dossier of examples of inspector experience in radiological hazard zones, according to the diplomats, who note monitors were present in Japan after the Fukushima Dai-Ichi meltdowns and continue their work amid the conflict in Ukraine. 

Next week’s IAEA consultations in Washington will take place as the clock winds down on a threat to re-impose UN sanctions on Iran. European powers gave Iran until the end of August to resume negotiations and allow inspections, or face the consequences of Security Council action. 

Iran has dismissed the threat, suggesting that restoring the sanctions would be illegal, and that doing so could prompt it to leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. 

In the absence of a negotiated solution, IAEA understanding of Iran’s program will continue to worsen, according to the diplomats. The 274 agency workers — who kept gram-level account of Iran’s uranium inventory while conducting almost 500 inspections last year — are facing reassignment. 

The IAEA has a swelling budget deficit and is facing reluctance from countries to volunteer new support, suggesting the monitoring mission in Iran could soon run into financial difficulties. Member states are starting to ask where the $23 million Grossi wants for Iran will go if there’s no monitoring, one diplomat said.