Nikki Haley Won Over Billionaires And GOP’s Old Guard But Couldn’t Crack Donald Trump’s Base

Haley exited the race for the GOP presidential nomination after a near-sweep of Tuesday’s races by Trump. Haley did not endorse Trump in her remarks Wednesday, saying he would need to “earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it, who did not support him.”

“Although I will no longer be a candidate I will not stop using my voice for the things I believe in,” she said in Charleston, South Carolina. “In our great country, being a private citizen is privilege enough in itself. That’s a privilege I very much look forward to enjoying.”

Trump carried 14 states on Super Tuesday and claimed a huge chunk of the delegates needed to secure his place at the top of the ticket. Haley won only in Vermont, which has few delegates and is heavily Democratic.

Trump, in a social media post, knocked Haley for receiving donations and votes from Democrats, before adding that he would like to “invite all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation. BIDEN IS THE ENEMY, HE IS DESTROYING OUR COUNTRY.”

From Ken Griffin to the Koch Group to Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, high-profile conservatives on Wall Street and in Washington who had been turned off by the Trump’s vindictive tone and the volatility of his first term had been willing to bet that Haley could cut off his path to a third consecutive nomination.

Yet the overwhelming majority of Republican primary voters made it clear they don’t want a Trump alternative. Whether it was Ron DeSantis, who tried to out-Trump Trump; Chris Christie, who crafted his campaign around criticizing the former president; or Haley, who sought to split the difference, no candidate ever shaped up as a serious threat to the frontrunner. 

Haley’s emergence as perhaps Trump’s most formidable challenger came too late, close watchers of the race said. Early on, Haley shrank from taking on Trump directly and struggled to capitalize on strong debate performances. Then, as the GOP field narrowed, Haley failed to win over voters who’d considered other non-Trump options. 

Still, Haley’s campaign became a stand-in for a wider struggle over the future of the GOP — a struggle that party insiders believe is likely to continue beyond the general election, and could grow more intense depending on the outcome. 

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Haley’s candidacy was a throwback to when Republicans ran for office on careful stewardship of the federal budget and muscular foreign policy. GOP voters who questioned Trump’s populism and his divisive, caustic rhetoric gravitated to Haley.

“She’s giving voice to so many of us who aren’t feeling heard,” said Ally Isom, a 53-year-old marketing executive and self-described “classic Republican” who lives in Provo, Utah — a state Trump also won on Tuesday. 

“I feel like my party’s been hijacked,” said Isom, who hosted a fundraiser last week that raised more than $100,000 for Haley. 

Financial Means

In recent weeks, Haley had amassed enough money to remain in the race even as donors like the Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity pulled back and turned their attention to congressional contests. Haley raised $12 million in February, much of which came from small-dollar donors, after raising more than $16 million in January. 

Campaign manager Betsy Ankney had helped Haley remain financially disciplined, according to political operatives. The campaign waited to spend big until Haley built momentum, said Nick Klitzing, who worked with Ankney on former Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner’s failed reelection bid and now runs a public affairs firm in Chicago.

Dan Lufkin, co-founder of investment bank Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, started tapping his Wall Street network on Haley’s behalf over two years ago, before she announced her candidacy. He’s frustrated with donors who told him they are keeping their powder dry, but said money wasn’t an issue for the Haley campaign.

“Nobody ever has enough money,” he said. 

Disaffected old-line Republicans had jumped into serving as foot soldiers for Haley. In Massachusetts, Jennifer Nassour, a former chair of the state Republican party, helped orchestrate a rally in the Boston suburb of Needham on Saturday night, where Ankney and other campaign staffers tossed t-shirts to the crowd before Haley spoke. Nassour said she saw Haley as an heir to Ronald Reagan.

“We need to get us to the Republican party back to our principles of free enterprise, liberty, being able to encourage people to get jobs and have home ownership and to be independent and to foster business and growth,” Nassour said. “Those things have been lost under Trump and Biden.”

Underdog Appeal

Haley ran a textbook underdog campaign, performing well at each debate and beefing up her grassroots operation while steadily rising in the polls. Her age, more moderate positions on many social issues and support for Ukraine early on positioned her as a challenge for Biden, who she topped in head-to-head polls. 

Yet winning the Republican nomination by relying on independents and Democrats in open primary states was always going to be an uphill climb. And New Hampshire, her best early shot to show her strategy could pay off, didn’t deliver the win she needed.

“What we know historically is that that kind of crossover vote just doesn’t make a difference because it’s hard enough to get people to turn out to vote in their own primary, even when it’s competitive,” said University of South Carolina political science professor Bob Oldendick. 

Read more: Biden Team Sees Diaffected Voters as Key to 2024 Rebound

Below the surface for the moment — and likely to remain so until the general election, according to a person familiar with the thinking of major donors — is a fight between Republicans who have embraced a Make America Great Again platform, and those who are ready to move on. 

The latter group includes Haley supporters but is much broader, the person said, and if Trump were to secure the nomination but lose a rematch with Biden, it’s likely to lead to a more public struggle over the party’s future.

Haley’s political future beyond 2024 likely hinges on whether Trump retakes the White House, as a loss could potentially inspire him to run in 2028. And Haley and other GOP candidates will have to deal with his base even after Trump himself is gone.

Jim Merrill, a Republican strategist who served as a senior adviser and consultant for Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s campaign, said Haley’s determination to challenge the former president will shape how Trump voters see her down the road.

“His voters are going to remember that,” said Merrill, “even if he’s not on the ballot.”

(Updates with Haley announcement, comments, Trump social media post)

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