Going forward, Systematxi expect gradual QoQ improvement in volume demand, weighted towards H2 FY26, on easing retail inflation and consumer pricing (as input-cost inflation eases) and distribution/ salesforce expansion from most companies.
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Systematix Report
We prefer stocks with
pricing power in key categories,
potential to gain market share from small/local players, and
relatively better growth tailwinds in operating segments.
We prefer Marico and Godrej Consumer in staples, Berger Paints in paints and Dodla Dairy in small/ midcaps.
Consumer staples’ companies delivered Q1 FY26 aggregate revenue growth in midhigh single digits (+6.5% YoY for our coverage), a slight uptick sequentially. Volume growth, while languishing in low-single digits (+3.5% YoY), also saw a QoQ uptick.
Several companies called out green shoots of demand recovery in urban markets, with rural growth maintaining its steady momentum. Demand was impacted by adverse seasonality (early monsoon) in categories such as juices, aerated drinks, ice creams, dairy drinks, sun/ skin care products and paints.
Going forward, we expect gradual QoQ improvement in volume demand, weighted towards H2 FY26, on-
easing retail inflation and consumer pricing (as input-cost inflation eases) and
distribution/ salesforce expansion from most companies.
We also expect food and beverage volume growth to benefit from any cut in GST rates (products in 12% slab moving to 5%; some in 28% slab moving to 18%), assuming full pass-through in pricing.
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