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Motilal Oswal Report
OPEC strategy shift can lead to lower oil prices in medium term:
We believe risks to a strong oil price outlook in the medium term are rising as OPEC+ strategy shifts from “managing” oil prices to “protecting market share”.
The shift in strategy is being driven by OPEC+ production stagnating between 42- 45 mb/d since Jan-22 even as U.S. oil production is set to rise 6% in the CY22-25 period.
Fiscal breakeven oil prices for Saudi Arabia/UAE down 10%/30% versus 2015:
Fiscal breakeven oil prices for key OPEC economies, Saudi Arabia and UAE, have declined to $85/bbl and $54/bbl now, respectively, from $94/bbl and $78/bbl in 2015. Thus, a $90/bbl oil price level, which was a compulsion in 2015, is a mere wish in 2024 for the Middle East producers.
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