Nuvoco Vistas Shares May Rally 40% Says HDFC Securities — Check Stock Rating, Revised Target Price

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HDFC Securities Retail Research

HDFC Securities has reaffirmed its 'Buy' rating on Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd. with a revised target price of Rs 470 per share, implying an upside of nearly 40% from the current market price of Rs 335.

The balance sheet deleveraging has provided significant comfort on valuation front. The brokerage believes, timely commissioning of the Vadraj assets and ramp-up can drive valuation rerating.

Nuvoco is expanding its capacity by 38%, leading to a capacity of 34.5 million metric tonne by H1 FY28. The company maintains the capex progress on track.

The expansion program includes refurbishment and operationalization of the acquired Vadraj Cement assets in the west and debottlenecking capacity in the east, entailing a total capex of Rs 38 billion.

The Rs 12 billion compulsorily convertible debentures issuance by Nuvoco to part-fund these expansions will significantly trim debt on books, cooling off leverage ratio. We expect its net debt to Ebitda to fall to 2/1.1x in Mar’26/Mar’28E, from an elevated level of 3.6x in Sep’25.

These expansions should accelerate consolidated volume CAGR to 6% during FY25-28E as against 3% in FY22-25E.

Nuvoco continues to focus on premiumization, and efficiency improvements should drive margin gains.

The brokerage expects cement prices to remain stable following the recovery seen in H1 FY26. Subsequently, it expects Nuvoco to deliver consolidated Ebitda of 18% during FY25-28E.

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