November CPI Data - Moderation In Food Prices Eases Headline Inflation: CareEdge

CareEdge Research Report

The Consumer Price Index inflation moderated to 5.5% in November from 6.2% in October, marginally above our estimate of 5.7%. This decrease in headline inflation is primarily due to a decline in food and beverage inflation, which fell to 8.2% in November from 9.7% in October.

The arrival of fresh harvests has led to a seasonal correction in food prices. Despite this moderation, food inflation remains elevated, driven by high inflation in vegetables (29% YoY), fruits (8% YoY), edible oil (13% YoY) and cereals (7% YoY).

Just by excluding vegetables, CPI inflation stands at 3.9%, below the RBI’s lower threshold of 4%. Encouragingly, the inflation rate for pulses moderated to below 6% in November; however, inflation for edible oils has risen into double-digit. Deflation in spices deepened further to 7.4% from 7% last month.

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