NALCO Q4 Results Review: Robust Show; But Future Earnings Likely To Slip — ICICI Securities Downgrades To Hold

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ICICI Securities Report

National Aluminium Company Ltd.’s Q4 FY25 performance was ahead of our and consensus estimates. Key points:

1. Ebitda was up 148.7% YoY, primarily driven by higher realisation of both alumina and aluminium.

2. Higher sales volume of alumina aided performance.

3. Pottangi bauxite mine expansion likely to be completed in FY26.

Going ahead, we expect performance to be impacted by lower alumina and Al prices, as volume growth is likely to be constrained. Taking cognizance of the current underlying commodity prices, we lower our FY26E/FY27E Ebitda by 20% each, though we raise the EV/Ebitda multiple to 5.5x (earlier 5x) as there is lower risk to our earnings estimates.

Our revised target price works out to Rs 190 (earlier Rs 205). Downgrade to Hold (earlier Add).

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