Lupin - gSpiriva To Rejuvenate Margins: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

Lupin Ltd. is the first company globally to receive the final approval of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for $1.264 billion inhalation drug gSpiriva (Tiotropium Bromide).

We factor in $100 million revenue from this drug in FY24E. Besides, Darunavir (approved in June 2023), gNascobal and Diazepam gel (target action date in July 2023) are the launches lined up in FY24. These launches could potentially drive 21.7% growth in Lupin’s U.S. revenue to $769 million in FY24E.

The management has previously guided for over 500 basis points expansion in Ebitda margin to 15-16% for FY24E with exit margin to be higher at 18%.

We raise our revenue/Ebitda/profit after tax estimate by 2%/13%/20%, respectively, for FY25E.

The stock continues to trade a pricey 33 times /28 times FY24/25E earnings of Rs 26.3/31.4, respectively.

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