LIC Q2 Review: ICICI Securities Maintains 'Buy', Eyes 23% Upside — Check Target Price

A product mix-driven rise in VNB margin is achievable – well-demonstrated by LIC, believes ICICI Securities.

LIC launched seven new products  in FY23 and six new non-par products in FY24.

(Photo: Shubhayan Bhattacharya/ Source_ NDTV Profit)  

On GST exemption on insurance policies, management stated that they are already seeing positive tailwinds, and full impact shall be seen in coming quarters. LIC has passed on the full benefit of the GST rate cut to its customers. No commission cuts for distributors are planned; management would focus on volume growth and ticket size; and product mix should offset the margin impact.

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ICICI Securities Report

Life Insurance Corporation of India witnessed annual premium equivalent/value of new business grow 3.6%/12.3% YoY in H1 FY26. Strategic initiatives have tracked well consistently. LIC has been able to push product mix towards non-participating (36% of individual APE in H1 FY26 vs 9%/18%/28% in FY23/FY24/FY25); and continuously revise its pricing/product strategy to maximise shareholder value.

There is expansion in non-agency distribution channels (7.2% of individual NBP in H1 FY26 vs 3.9%/5.6% in FY24/FY25), focus on agency (total no. of agents at 1.49 million, as of Sep’25; 3.2% YoY growth) and improvement in digital initiatives (DIVE/Jeevan Samarth).

We believe, a product mix-driven rise in VNB margin is achievable – well-demonstrated by LIC.

However, volume growth shall be key for sustainable double-digit volume VNB growth. Management remains confident of growth (both par/non-par) and recovering persistency via internal measures while underlining scope for further improvement in margins.

Deeply discounted valuation (near ~0.6x P/EV, basis FY27E, factoring in no positive economic variance between FY25–27E) is unwarranted. Higher volumes pose near-term tailwinds.

Longer-term risks include any adverse regulations such as open architecture in agency and increasing sensitivity to interest rates with the increase in its non-par book (LIC is working on scaling up the hedging of its non-par portfolio).

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

ICICI Securities LICI_Q2FY26_Results_Nov25.pdf
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Also Read: Bajaj Housing Finance Q2 Review: Strong Growth Despite Competitive Pressure— Motilal Oswal Maintains 'Neutral'

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