Indian Oil, BPCL, Gujarat Gas Among ICICI Securities' Bets In Oil And Gas Sector Ahead Of Q1 Results

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ICICI Securities Report

Q1 FY26 results for oil and gas companies under our coverage (excluding GOLI) are likely to show a stronger trend YoY/QoQ. We expect Ebitda/PAT to improve 24%/37% YoY and 7%/8% QoQ, respectively. YoY increase in the operational performance may be driven by oil marketing companies, Reliance and Gujarat Gas.

OMCs’ YoY Ebitda increase could be driven by stronger gross refining margin and marketing margins. Reliance’s YoY performance is likely to remain strong, but QoQ performance may be flattish, with some growth in Jio and steady oil-to-chemical, offset by muted upstream and flattish retail performance.

City gas distribution Ebitda margins (Rs/scm) may improve QoQ due to fall in input (long term) gas cost linked to crude prices; Indraprastha Gas and Mahanagar Gas are likely to continue to show strong YoY volume growth. For utilities, volumes could show marginal improvement QoQ.

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