Indian Hotels maintains a positive growth outlook for the near term (especially near term viz. Q4 FY25/Q1 FY26), however, the brokerage believes this growth is getting front-loaded.
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Dolat Capital Report
Indian Hotels Company Ltd.’s Q3 FY25 performance was in line and healthy. Consolidated revenue/Ebitda/adjusted profit after tax grew +29/31.3/28.8% YoY. Revenue/Ebitda growth (excluding Taj SATS) was impressive at 15/21% YoY.
Enterprise level RevPAR growth at 13% on a same-store basis was healthy too.
The company maintains a positive growth outlook for the near term (especially near term viz. Q4 FY25/Q1 FY26). However, we believe this growth is getting front-loaded. As FY25 will be the third year of industry outperformance, it may pose a challenge for FY26/27E growth. Inherent cyclicality, economic slowdown, high base, competition and high valuations are some of the key risks.
We broadly maintain our FY25-27E estimates. We increase our target multiple from 25 times to 30 times FY27E enterprise value/Ebitda in the backdrop of changed consumer behaviour, Indian Hotels’ superior execution and demand-supply mismatch (albeit catching up).
We reiterate ‘Sell’ rating with revised target price of Rs 775 @ 30x (Pre IndAS) FY27E EV/E (versus Rs 630 @ 25x Pre IndAS) due to rich valuations.
We expect revenue/Ebitda/APAT CAGR of 16/19/23% over FY24-27E. Indian Hotels trades at ~36/31x FY26/27E EV/E and 60/50x PE.
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