'Hold' GAIL Shares Maintains Systematix Despite Upward EPS Revision — Check Revised Target Price

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Systematix Report

After a prolonged wait, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) has approved a 12.1% increase in GAIL India Ltd.’s gas pipeline tariff, raising it from Rs 58.6/mmbtu to Rs 65.7/mmbtu effective January 1, 2026.

The revision, however, falls short of GAIL’s proposed Rs 78/mmbtu, as the regulator sought to avoid a sharp financial impact on consumers. The next tariff review is scheduled for April 2028, when adjustments for actual and future capex and opex will be considered.

Systematix notes that the hike will lift GAIL’s earnings by 3.1% in FY26 and 5.5% in FY27, with PAT estimates revised to Rs 82 billion and Rs 100 billion respectively.

EPS projections have been upgraded to Rs 12.4 for FY26 and Rs 15.3 for FY27. Despite this, the brokerage sees limited near-term triggers, citing modest volume growth and no further tariff hikes before FY28.

Systematix maintains a Hold rating on GAIL with a revised target price of Rs 191 (from Rs 188), implying a potential upside of about 4% from the current market price of Rs 184.

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