Greenpanel Q4 Results Review: Muted Operational Performance Offset By EPCG Grant; IDBI Capital Maintains Hold

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IDBI Capital Report

Greenpanel Industries Ltd.’s Q4 FY25 performance exceeded our expectations, led by a government grant under EPCG Scheme. Revenue declined 6% YoY to Rs 3.7 billion, due to weak performance across segments. Consolidated Ebitda margin contracted by 20 bps YoY to 12.8%, aided by Rs 350 million EPCG grant. Adjusted for the grant, Ebitda margin was 3.5%.

Management expects to receive the remaining Rs 510 million EPCG grant of over next six-eight months. Looking ahead, management targets MDF volumes of 550,000 CBM and an Ebitda margin of 12% in FY26.

The new MDF facility has commenced operations with expected capacity utilization reaching 35% by FY26. We have cut FY26/FY27 estimates by 16%/17%, respectively.

We value the stock at 22x FY27E EPS to derive a target price of Rs 252 (earlier Rs 338). We maintain Hold rating on the stock.

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