Data Preview — CPI Inflation To Moderate To Around 1.4% In Sept; August WPI Seen At 0.43%: Nirmal Bang

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Nirmal Bang Report

Consumer Price Index inflation is expected to moderate to 1.4% in Sep-25 from 2.1% in Aug-25, led by decline in vegetable prices, particularly tomatoes.

CPI – food and beverage inflation is likely to decline 1.26% YoY in Sep-25 vs a 0.05% increase in Aug-25.

Core CPI is likely to inch up to 4.26% in Sep-25 from 4.11% in Aug-25, largely owing to higher gold prices.

WPI inflation expected to moderate to 0.43% in Sep-25 vs 0.52% in Aug-25 on a higher base. Core WPI inflation is likely to move up marginally to 1.89% in Sep-25 from 1.83% in Aug-25.

We expect a 25 basis points rate cut in December from the RBI with the possibility of cumulative rate cuts of 50bps over the next two meetings.

We see downside risk to our inflation estimate of 2.5% and RBI’s estimate of 2.6%.

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