Coal India: ICICI Securities Maintains 'Buy' On The Stock, Revises Target Price, Sees 22% Upside — Here's Why

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ICICI Securities Report

We see Coal India Ltd.’s FY25 performance to be impacted by possibly stagnant volumes, though e-auction price remains relatively stable. Key points:

1. Production and offtake volumes until Feb’25–YTD was impacted by rake unavailability, inclement monsoons and ongoing production issues at South Eastern Coalfield Ltd.

2. Additional revenue from the additional levy at Northern Coalfields Ltd. mines likely at Rs 38 billion for FY26E.

3. Pithead inventory at 94 million tonnes as on end-Feb’25.

4. Relatively firm Indonesian prices (compared to South Africa) likely to aid e-auction prices in the near-term.

We have pruned our sales volume growth estimate for FY25/FY26 to 1%/4% (earlier 3%/5%). Our revised target price works out to Rs 440 (earlier Rs 455) on an unchanged 7.5x FY27E EPS. Maintain Buy.

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