Cement Sector Check - Competitive Severity; Maintain Neutrality: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities Report

With the incumbent NDA government set to stay in power (outcome of recently concluded general elections) for a third consecutive term, our neutral stance on the sector is extant. Synchronously, our demand estimate (6%/7% for FY25E/ FY26E) is intact; in tandem we maintain that amidst the underlying elevated competitive intensity (we envisage pricing environment staying volatile), the chances of earning upgrades remain far and few.

Au contraire, weakness deepening in cement prices (with the onset of monsoons) will likely bruise earnings. Further, benign fuel cost alone may not suffice to drive margin expansion.

We continue to prefer Ambuja Cement (on expectation of industry-superior capacity growth and cost rationalistion potential) and ACC (on compelling valuations) as investment ideas.

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