Buy Sun Pharma, Add Metropolis Lists HDFC Securities Among Others In Pharma, Healthcare; Q1 Results Preview

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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

The India Pharma and Healthcare sector is expected to see steady revenue growth. However, Ebitda margins are expected to show a decline for Q1 FY26E. We project sales/Ebitda growth of 11%/9% YoY for our coverage universe. Our assumptions are:

1. pharma coverage will see 11% YoY sales growth, driven by an 11% YoY increase in the India business along with 2% QoQ growth in US sales (+2% YoY). In the US market, price erosion in the base business and key products like gRevlimid (Dr Reddy’s, Zydus, and Aurobindo) will be offset by steady traction in key products (gSpiriva - Lupin, gMyrbetriq – Zydus and Lupin), new launches (gJynarque – Lupin), and specialty scale-up (Sun Pharma);

2. Ebitda margins for the pharma segment are expected to decrease by 42 bps YoY (high base of gRevlimid led sales/margin), driven by price erosion in the US and expected increase in R&D;

3. the hospital business is projected to grow by 15% YoY, as muted occupancy will be partly supported by steady average revenue per occupied beds, as well as M&As (Max Healthcare). We expect Ebitda margins to expand for Apollo Hospital (due to reduced spending on Apollo 24/7) and Aster DM (led by cost controls), while Max Healthcare may see a margin decline due to impact from integration with acquired hospitals.

4. The diagnostics segment is expected to post 15% YoY sales growth (ex-M&A growth at 12% YoY), driven by patient/test volume increases, while network expansion and M&A-led costs could impact margins;

5. while the retail pharmacy Medplus is expected to see muted growth, Apollo Pharmacy could see steady growth.

Overall, we expect strong performances from Lupin, Ipca, and Torrent, while Aurobindo, Zydus, and Max Healthcare may post muted results.

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