BPCL Q1 Results Review - Marketing Margins A Major Earning Driver: Dolat Capital

Falling discounts on Russian crude, resulting in lower gross refining margin.

A BPCL refinery. (Source: Company website)

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Dolat Capital Report

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd.'s profit after tax was ahead of estimates due to-

  1. higher-than-expected marketing margins on oil products and better than expected gross refining margin of $12.6/barrel of oil;

  2. refinery throughput up 7% YoY;

  3. BPCL has been gaining market share in auto fuel among public sector undertaking; and

  4. 20% YoY fall in operating expense.

Mega spending on energy transition, net carbon zero and energy Security:

A plan to invest Rs 1,5 trillion over next five to six years, capex/annum will accelerate from FY26 onwards.

Management has largely maintained capex guidance of Rs 100 billion/Rs 130 billion in FY24/FY25.

Considering the higher marketing margins we increase assumptions for the FY24E but maintained for FY25E. We maintain 'Accumulate' with a target price of Rs 440 (versus earlier Rs 430).

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Dolat Capital BPCL_Q1FY24 Result Update.pdf
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Also Read: Muted Price Trends For Crude, LNG May Not Last; Spike To Be Smaller Than CY22 Levels: ICICI Securities

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