Reliance Industries' consolidated net profit is expected to be little changed at Rs 18,471 crore on a sequential basis in the fourth quarter of financial year 2025.
While the conglomerate's telecom arm is expected to save the day, all other segments of the company like O2C, oil and gas, as well as retail are expected to see a sequential dip in Ebitda.
RIL Q4FY25 Preview (Consolidated, QoQ)
Revenue may rise 26% at Rs 3,02,627 crore versus Rs 2,39,986 crore.
Ebitda may fall 1% to Rs 43,365 crore versus Rs 43,789 crore.
Margin may contract 390 basis points at 14.3% versus 18.2%.
Net profit expected to be flat at Rs 18,471 crore versus Rs 18,540 crore.
Expected Segmental Performance: O2C, Oil & Gas
O2C Ebitda expected to fall 3% to Rs 13,921 crore versus Rs 14,402 crore.
Oil & Gas (gas exploration) Ebitda expected to fall 5% at Rs 5,286 crore vs Rs 5,565 crore.
Reliance Industries' O2C Ebitda is expected to fall due to lower gross refining and weak petrochemical margins. This is due to the 38% quarter on quarter fall in the benchmark; Singapore GRMs during the quarter to $3.1 per barrel. Analyst also stated that some of this weakness would be offset owing to favorable forex movement.
The decline in the Oil and Gas exploration segment's Ebitda would be owing to a decline in KG-D6 gas output.
Expected Segmental Performance: Reliance Retail
Retail revenue expected to fall 15% to Rs 76,695 crore vs Rs 90,351 crore.
Retail Ebitda expected to fall 9% to Rs 6,247 crore vs Rs 6,840 crore.
Reliance Industries' retail Ebitda is expected to see a sequential decline to the a high base. Q3FY25 saw many festivals which caused the quarter's numbers to be higher.
Reliance Jio Q4FY25 Preview (QoQ)
Revenue seen 2% higher at Rs 29,893 crore versus Rs 29,307 crore.
Ebitda seen 2% higher at Rs 15,840 crore versus Rs 15,478 crore.
Margin seen at 53% vs 52.8%.
Net profit seen 1.5% higher at Rs 6,571 crore versus Rs 6,477 crore.
Average revenue per user may increase 1% at Rs 205 versus Rs 203.
Subscribers may rise to 48.76 crore versus 48.21 crore.
As per analysts, the growth expected in Reliance Jio in Q4 FY25 will be supported by tariff hikes taken as well as marginal subscriber additions.
Jio's average revenue per user is expected to grow for the third consecutive quarter, but it's key to note that the growth number is slowing. The growth benefit of the average revenue per user will be staggered, as it has a higher mix of subscribers with long validity.
Overall subscriber growth will be aided by strong subscriber additions in the broadband space.
Disclaimer: The estimates and reasons mentioned in this copy have been compiled from various brokerages like Jefferies, Nomura, Motilal Oswal, Morgan Stanley, Nuvama, JPMorgan, CLSA, UBS and others.
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