The $30-Trillion Imperative: What Will Power India's Next Economic Revolution?

India is now the fastest-growing major economy, with GDP about $4.13 trillion in FY2024-25. But reaching the $30 trillion milestone by 2047 — about a sevenfold jump — will not be achieved through momentum alone. The services and consumption engines that powered earlier growth are necessary, but insufficient.

India must now unlock a deeper transformation — anchored in capital formation, global competitiveness, productivity, and institutional capacity. This article outlines five catalytic shifts, backed by global models and local imperatives, that can power India’s economic revolution.

India’s infrastructure allocation for FY2026 at around Rs 11.21 lakh crore ($129.68 billion, considering the average 6M FY2026 USD-INR rate of 86.4437 and up from Rs 11.11 lakh crore in FY2025) is around 3.1% of the GDP. In comparison, China’s fixed asset investment stood at $7.15 trillion in 2024, as per National Bureau of Statistics.

Two major platforms shaping India's infra landscape are:

• The National Infrastructure Pipeline: Launched in 2019 with a projected investment of Rs 111 lakh crore across sectors, the NIP is India’s flagship program for building social and economic infrastructure. With energy, roads, railways, and urban infrastructure accounting for the largest share, NIP provides a structured pipeline of projects to boost capital formation, attract private investment, and improve infrastructure quality.

• PM GatiShakti National Master Plan: Launched in October 2021, the PMGS-NMP is a transformative initiative to build seamless multimodal connectivity across India’s economic zones. Driven by seven engines — railways, roads, ports, waterways, airports, mass transport, and logistics infrastructure — and supported by energy, IT, and social infrastructure, it integrates projects through a digital GIS-based master planning platform developed by BISAG-N. By aligning NIP projects with GatiShakti’s multimodal framework, India aims to create world-class infrastructure, reduce logistics costs, enhance efficiency, and generate large-scale employment and entrepreneurship opportunities.

• Scale-up NaBFID as India’s anchor infra financier — modelled on institutions like Korea’s KDB (assets $231 bn as on December 31, 2024) and Japan’s JBIC, which have powered long-term industrial and infrastructure financing.

• Scale the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) Between FY22–FY25, assets worth ₹5.3 lakh crore were monetised against the Rs 6 lakh crore potential identified — with coal (Rs 2 lakh crore) and roads (Rs 1.1 lakh crore) leading the pack. The next phase, NMP 2025–30, sets a Rs 10 lakh crore target. Achieving — and surpassing — this target will be critical to recycling capital into greenfield projects, reducing fiscal strain, and crowding in private investment.

• Expand REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) and InvITs (Infrastructure Investment Trusts) as mainstream infra-financing vehicles by making dividends tax-neutral for investors; offering sovereign credit guarantees on core infra-assets to reduce cost of capital; allowing higher allocations from pension and insurance funds to match infrastructure’s long-duration capital needs

The Reserve Bank of India and the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy estimate the multiplier to be between 2.5 and 3.5. This means that for every rupee spent by the government on infrastructure projects, GDP will increase by Rs. 2.5 to Rs. 3.5.   

India’s corporate bond market is only 17–18% of the GDP, far below China (36%), South Korea (80%+), and the US (100%+). While India’s equity markets are deep and active, the debt market remains underdeveloped — limiting long-term financing for infrastructure, MSMEs, and emerging sectors. Mature economies rely more on market-based financing; India still leans heavily on bank credit. Strengthening the bond market is, therefore, essential to unlock patient capital and support sustained high-growth investment.

To sustain high-growth investment cycles and move towards a $30 trillion economy, India must deepen its debt markets. This requires broadening the investor base, increasing long-duration financing capacity, and reducing dependence on short-term foreign flows that amplify financial vulnerability.

• Enable long-duration bond issuance (10–30 years) by harmonizing stamp duties across states and setting transparent pricing benchmarks, essential for greenfield infrastructure and climate projects.

• Broaden the investor base: Introduce tax incentives and streamline processes to attract retail, pension, and foreign investors, and calibrate prudential norms to unlock more institutional capital. For example, permit higher insurance-sector exposure to well-rated corporate bonds (AA/A) under tightened risk-management and concentration limits – rather than blanket below-AAA permission – to mobilize long-duration financing while protecting policyholder interests.

• Strengthen market-making institutions such as SIDBI, NIIF, and LIC to provide deep liquidity in secondary markets, dampen volatility, and inspire investor confidence.

• Boost venture funding availability: India’s existing venture funding for 2024 stood at $13.7 billion as against $209 billion in the US. This has to move toward a more ambitious target to support startups and preferably with favourable equity dilution terms.

• De-risk capital flows: Establish Credit Guarantee Funds for emerging sectors like EVs, chip design, and AI to catalyze private investment and tackle early-stage risk.

• Diversify debt instruments: Scale issuance of GSS+ bonds — Green, Social, Sustainable and SLB — (India raised $12.5 billion in 2024). Also encourage pooled financing platforms to support urban infrastructure.

• Deploy risk-management tools: Deepen nascent markets for Credit Default Swaps and interest-rate futures to mitigate investor risk and align with global bond-market practices.

• Digitize bond markets: Modernize both primary and secondary bond platforms for transparency, standardization, and increased retail participation.

India’s total exports touched an all-time high of $824.9 billion in FY25 – with $437.4 billion in goods and $387.5 billion in services. Yet, as per World Bank data, India’s trade-to-GDP ratio (45%) remains significantly lower than that of Vietnam (165%), South Korea (88%), Germany (80%), and the UK (62%).

For India to transition into a $30 trillion economy, exports must multiply several-fold — moving beyond services to a diversified, manufacturing- and technology-driven export basket.

• Build 10 world-class Export Hubs: India should develop integrated export mega-clusters that co-locate manufacturing, R&D, design, testing, and port-connected logistics — similar to the evolutionary models seen in Shenzhen and Busan. Shenzhen’s GDP scaled to $510 billion, fuelled by innovation and electronics powerhouse by clustering design studios, component suppliers, contract manufacturers, and finance within a single ecosystem. The Port of Busan, handled 24.4 million TEUs in 2024, demonstrates how seamless port-industrial integration drives global manufacturing competitiveness.

India should establish 10 such hubs with:

1. Plug-and-play industrial infrastructure

2. Tiered supplier parks and R&D labs

3. Port + freight corridor connectivity

4. Single-window clearances and skilling centres

Cities like Visakhapatnam (electronics), Mundra (chemicals/petro-products), and Chennai (EVs/automotives) already have foundational industrial depth to anchor these sector-specific export ecosystems.

• Expand Production-Linked Incentives: The PLI programme has materially accelerated electronics and mobile manufacturing. As per the Ministry of Electronics & IT, electronics output grew 146% from Rs 2.13 lakh crore in FY2020–21 to Rs 5.25 lakh crore in FY2024–25, with mobile phone production reaching Rs 5.5 lakh crore in FY2023–24, positioning India among the world’s leading smartphone manufacturing hubs.

• Consider extending PLI-type incentives to high-growth, export-intensive sectors such as specialty chemicals, semiconductor packaging and compound chips, medical devices, maritime and shipping equipment, green mobility components (advanced cell chemistries, hydrogen electrolysers), aerospace sub-systems, renewable energy manufacturing (solar wafers/modules, wind turbine components), and precision manufacturing tools. These extensions must be structured with strict performance-linked disbursement, phased domestic value-add targets, and export-scaling milestones to ensure fiscal efficiency and genuine competitive capacity creation.

• Sustain and deepen logistics efficiency gains: With the new government-backed assessment placing India’s logistics cost at approximately 7.9–8% of GDP, the strategic imperative now is to consolidate and accelerate ongoing improvements. The last five years have seen measurable efficiency gains driven by PM Gati Shakti, the National Logistics Policy, Dedicated Freight Corridors, Sagarmala, Bharatmala, ULIP, and state-level logistics plans.

The focus ahead should be

1. Expanding multimodal connectivity to reduce route and handling inefficiencies;

2. Enabling scale-based warehousing zones and Multi-Modal Logistics Parks;

3. Improving last-mile industrial linkages, especially to ports and freight terminals; and

4. Rationalizing land-use and state-level tax processes to cut dwell times.

These steps will help compress lead times, strengthen export competitiveness, and position India more firmly as a logistics-efficient manufacturing and trading economy.

• Leverage India–UK CETA (July 2025) — duty-free access on 99% of tariff lines covering nearly 100% of trade value with tariffs on marine products, textiles, leather and processed foods reduced from 70% to zero. Further, the Double Contribution Convention will save Indian companies and workers over Rs 4,000 crores by removing dual social security payments.

• EFTA (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein): With the India-EFTA TEPA taking effect from October 1, 2025, India should proactively seize the opportunity to access capital-rich European markets and attract long-term FDI. The agreement brings a binding commitment of $100 billion in EFTA investment over 15 years – supporting 1 million new direct jobs in India – and offers wide-ranging market access for Indian goods and services, professional mobility, and technology transfer. India must align its export and investment policies to fully realize these developmental and employment gains, while safeguarding sensitive domestic sectors and maximizing opportunities for Indian enterprises in Europe.

• United States: Pursue a targeted trade package that restores preferential market access – including calibrated GSP-type benefits – to safeguard labour-intensive exports such as textiles, agriculture, and processed foods. In parallel, establish predictable frameworks for digital and services trade. Crucially, this economic engagement must be anchored by high-level political channels to resolve tariff disputes and preserve broader strategic alignment.

India’s next phase of export growth requires moving from incremental expansion to scale-based competitiveness. Robust export hubs, strategic trade agreements, sustained logistics efficiency, and well-targeted sectoral incentives together can convert India’s economic potential into durable global competitiveness.

India’s labour productivity (GDP per hour worked, PPP terms) is about $10.7, less than half the world average of $23.1, and far below peers like China ($19.8). A key drag is informality: over 80% of workers remain outside formal payrolls, and MSMEs contribute only 30% of GDP (vs 50% worldwide) even though they account for over 45% of India’s exports.

• Build an "India Stack for Enterprises": A Unified Enterprise Data Platform (UEDP) linking PAN, GSTN, MCA21, and credit bureau data would allow businesses to build verified digital identities. This would enable banks and NBFCs to extend cash-flow based, underwritten lending to MSMEs, reduce dependence on collateral, and open the door for data-driven skilling and targeted subsidies. Similar frameworks exist globally – e.g., Singapore’s MyInfo Business and Estonia’s e-Business Register – showing that such platforms can materially cut credit risk and expand formalization.

• Simplify compliance: Today, MSMEs must separately file returns across tax (GST), social security (EPF, ESI), and labour laws – a major deterrent to formalization. A single digital compliance window can reduce both transaction costs and the fear of regulatory harassment. This is akin to India’s earlier reforms that collapsed 20+ indirect taxes into the GST regime; the same principle can now be applied to MSME compliance.

• Leverage Digital Public Infrastructure for MSMEs: India’s next wave of productivity gains will come from enabling small businesses to operate on open digital networks.

• Scaling ONDC can allow India’s 1+ crore grocery and micro-retail stores to participate in digital commerce on equal terms with large platforms. As on date 7.64+ Lacs sellers are registered on ONDC platform.

• Expanding GeM adoption can give MSMEs more direct access to the public procurement market, improving transparency and payment certainty. For reference, over the past nine years, GeM has recorded Rs 5.4 lakh crore in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) in FY 2024–25, onboarding 1.5 lakh women-led enterprises along with startups, self-help groups (SHGs), artisans and micro and small enterprises (MSEs).

• Wider uptake of the Account Aggregator framework can let MSMEs use verified cash-flow and transaction data as collateral for formal credit, reducing reliance on informal lenders.

• Together, these DPIs can do for MSMEs what Aadhaar and UPI did for individuals: mass inclusion with low friction and high trust.

Formalization boosts productivity, tax revenues, employment, and credit access. Brazil’s Simples Nacional program, which unified multiple taxes into a single simplified system, led to a significant rise in business registrations and compliance, demonstrating how ease of formalization drives growth. India is seeing similar momentum: the Udyam and Udyam Assist platforms together have enabled over 7 crore MSMEs to move toward formal identity, making it easier for them to access bank credit, government procurement, and targeted support schemes. As formalization deepens, India’s MSME sector can shift from subsistence-scale businesses to competitive, growth-oriented enterprises.

India has demonstrated world-class execution with flagship missions, creating a proven model for achieving large-scale developmental outcomes.

• Swachh Bharat Mission: Building on the foundational success of constructing over 100 million household toilets and making over 6 lakh villages Open Defecation Free (ODF) by 2019, the mission's second phase has made significant progress. The current focus on achieving 'Sampoorn Swachhata' (complete cleanliness) aims to transition villages to ODF Plus status, which includes sustainability of ODF outcomes, and solid and liquid waste management. As of March 2025, government data shows that 95% of villages (5.67 lacs out of 5.87 lacs) have already been declared ODF Plus. This effort is supported by a consolidated financial outlay of Rs 1.40 lakh crore and uses a real-time MIS for monitoring, classifying villages as "Aspiring," "Rising," or "Model" to track progress.

• Jal Jeevan Mission: Launched in 2019 to provide functional tap-water connections to every rural household, the Mission now reaches over 15.72 crore rural homes (over 81% coverage) as of October 22, 2025 – up from just 3.23 crore at launch. The programme features embedded quality-monitoring (2,843 labs, 38.78 lakh water samples tested in 2025-26) and is estimated to generate ~3 crore person-years of employment during execution, with ~25 lakh women trained to test water quality using Field Testing Kits (FTKs) in 5.07 lakh villages. This community-driven approach ensures early detection of water contamination and strengthens local ownership of rural water quality monitoring. By converging infrastructure expansion with digital tracking, community participation and source sustainability, JJM is enhancing rural water security and easing socio-economic burdens.

Further, WHO also projects that ensuring universal coverage of safely managed drinking water for all households in India could prevent nearly 4 lakh deaths from diarrheal diseases, averting approximately 14 million Disability Adjusted Life Years and resulting in estimated cost savings up to Rs 8.2 lakh crore in health costs. Additionally, according to the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore, in partnership with the International Labour Organization. JJM has potential to generate nearly 3 crore person-years of employment during its build-out, with nearly 25 lakh women being trained to use Field Testing Kits.

• Institutionalize outcome-based budgeting and target setting for all major schemes.

• Build a National Delivery Index to rank ministries and states by execution in infrastructure, health, and education, spurring accountability and healthy competition.

• Establish empowered, fast-track approval cells in key sectors to accelerate investment and innovation.

• Embed “mission-mode” rigor – agile teams, transparent monitoring, and accountability for results – across all levels of government, learning from global models like the UK Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit. 

India’s future depends not just on setting ambitious goals, but on embedding a “delivery culture” throughout the state – making excellence the norm, not the exception.

The path to a $30 trillion India will not come from inertia or incrementalism. It demands an integrated ecosystem approach, where infrastructure, capital markets, exports, productivity, and governance reinforce each other.

With its demographic dividend, digital stack, and entrepreneurial energy, India stands uniquely equipped for global economic leadership. But achieving this potential means institutionalizing outcome-driven governance, system-wide capability, and relentless execution as the fabric of the Indian state.

 The time for ambition is now. The moment for bold execution is here.