Russia Keeps Crude Exports Flowing Ahead Of Trump-Putin Summit

Russia’s oil shipments nudged down for a third week, but remain comfortably within the range seen so far this year. Threats of additional tariffs are having little immediate impact on flows ahead of a Friday meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Four-week average crude shipments fell for a third week in the latest data, while seven-day flows rebounded. Seaborne cargoes averaged 3.11 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 10, down by about 3% from a revised 3.21 million barrels a day for the period to Aug. 3, tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While India’s state-owned refiners have bought some cargoes of crude from non-Russian sources in the face of an additional 25% tariff imposed by President Trump on India’s exports to the US, it will be several weeks before it’s possible to gauge any effect on Russian shipments.

Companies may skip spot purchases of Moscow’s crude for October loading — but are awaiting clear government guidance. Any impact on flows will only become clearer when those cargoes load and even then, crude may be put on the water in anticipation of the situation being resolved before they arrive off India.

The tariffs are due to come into effect on Aug. 27 and could yet be reversed. Trump has also floated the possibility of additional tariffs on China, though the likelihood of the move was played down by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. For now, the market appears to be discounting any significant disruption to Russian crude exports.

With Trump due to meet with Putin in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine on Friday, crude has continued to flow uninterrupted from Russia’s ports. Most shipments from the Pacific end up in China, while a voyage from the Baltic to the west coast of India takes about a month, leaving plenty of time for the additional tariffs on New Delhi to be reversed before the ships start to arrive.

Separately, Ukraine has intensified strikes against Russia’s oil refineries. Rosneft’s Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk plants were hit in the first days of August, while an attack on the company’s Saratov refinery on Sunday halted crude intake. Lower processing rates should make more crude available for export, but it will take time for the unexpected disruptions at the damaged refineries to show up in shipments. The attacks came as Russia is trying to boost crude processing to meet domestic fuel demand.

The tracking of crude shipments from Russia’s Pacific ports has become more difficult with an increase in spoofed position signals. This follows a pattern previously seen in the Baltic, the Black Sea and around Murmansk. Bloomberg uses a combination of signals from ships’ automated information systems, port agent reports and satellite imagery to track oil flows. The increased spoofing increases the chance of vessels being missed and may increase the number of historical revisions to data.

A total of 30 tankers loaded 23.31 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Aug. 10, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was up from a revised 22.72 million barrels on the same number of ships the previous week.

Crude flows in the period to Aug. 10 stood at about 3.11 million barrels a day on a four-week average basis, down by 100,000 barrels a day from the period to Aug. 3. The four-week average smooths out big swings in weekly numbers, giving a clearer picture of underlying trends in crude flows. Using more volatile weekly figures, shipments rose by about 80,000 barrels to 3.33 million barrels a day.

The small gain in weekly flows was driven by larger cargoes being loaded at Novorossiysk.

An increase in spoofing of automated ship position signals around the port of Kozmino has made tracking of Pacific cargoes more complicated.

There was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude during the week from Novorossiysk.

The gross value of Moscow’s exports fell by about $50 million, or 4%, to $1.38 billion in the week to Aug. 10 from a revised $1.43 billion the previous week. The modest increase in flows was more than offset by lower average prices for Russia’s crudes.

Urals cargoes from the Baltic and Black Sea fell by about $3 a barrel to average $57.26 a barrel and $57.59 a barrel respectively during the week. The price of key Pacific grade ESPO fell by $4 to average $63.10 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were down by $3.10 at $66.79 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a four-week average basis, the export price of Russia’s Urals from both the Baltic and the Black Sea was down by $0.50 a barrel, averaging about $58.80 a barrel and $59 a barrel respectively, while Pacific ESPO was down by about $0.40 a barrel to $65.01 a barrel.

Using this measure, the value of exports was also down by about $50 million from the period to Aug. 3, averaging about $1.33 billion a week.

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 2.73 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Aug. 10, down from a revised 2.79 million barrels a day in the period to Aug. 3.

The figures include about 530,000 barrels a day on ships from Western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 50,000 barrels a day on tankers yet to signal a destination. The quantity of crude on ships showing no final destination has increased in recent weeks, with vessels often not signaling a destination until they are close to their discharge port. Previously, many vessels began sending credible destinations while in the Red Sea.

It’s too early to say whether President Trump’s threatened additional tariffs on imports from India have affected the country’s purchases of Russian crude. The apparent drop-off in shipments to India could well be reversed once the destinations of those vessels in the Unknown Asia and Other Unknown categories become clear.

Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Aug. 10 fell to about 280,000 barrels a day, a new low for the period since May. Shipments to Syria averaged about 70,000 barrels a day.