IndiGo Shares Tumble Amid Flight Cancellation Fiasco — Brokerages Estimate Massive Impact

Shares of Interglobe Aviation Ltd. are facing immense pressure in trade on Monday's session in the wake of the recent flight cancellations and the aftermath surrounding the fiasco.

The stock is currently trading at Rs 5,154, which accounts for a fall of more than 4% compared to Friday's closing price of Rs 5,370.

The selling pressure originates from multiple factors, including losses incurred due to a myriad of cancelled flights in the last three days.

While initial projections had indicated minor losses for the company, the aftermath of the flight cancellation fiasco saw IndiGo having to remunerate the affected passengers.

The government said on Sunday that IndiGo passed refunds worth Rs 610 crore following 2,000 cancelled flights in the span of few days.

Brokerages believe the fiasco could result in lasting cost pressure on IndiGo while regulatory action including a show-cause notice to the CEO is also likely.

One brokerage estimates earnings hit of 8-9% for FY26 if the situation lasts for a total of ~15 days with 5 days already done, while another believes rising costs could erode PBT by around 25% if not offset by fare hikes.

The government, meanwhile, has also capped pricing for all carriers in the Rs 7,500 - 18,000 range, which is a net negative for IndiGo as well.

Out of 26 analysts tracking the company, 21 maintain a 'buy' rating, tworecommend a 'hold' and three suggest 'sell', according to Bloomberg data. The average 12-month consensus price target of Rs 6,332 implies an upside of 17.1%.