How Much Return Will Nifty Give In 2026? Samir Arora Weighs In

Helios Capital founder Samir Arora is confident that the Indian markets can bounce back in 2026, with the market veteran expecting Nifty to offer returns of up to 15% in 2026.

“I see 15% return in Nifty in 2026," Arora told NDTV Profit, highlighting that the relative underperformance in Indian markets has been blown out of proportions. “Prospects for next year look good. If you look from October onwards, India is already doing better than most markets," he added.

Arora argued that returns in the Indian broader markets haven't been particularly disappointing, especially when viewed from a March timeframe

“If you look at Indian markets from March. From March, the midcap index is up 25% and the smallcap index is up 18-20%. As a market, we have not overcome what happened between September 2024 to March 2025," he said.

"The overall performance has been bad, but not end-of-the-world bad. If you take into account the previous two years, which were very good, the performance has been good," he added.

Having recently launched a small cap fund, the Helios Capital founder added that the small and midcap space has a strong case to make, if large caps continue to deliver 'boring' returns.

“We think if large caps consistently perform, then there will be a lot more interest in mid and small caps. One reason is that the definition of small-cap in India has become very big, and the definition of large-cap has become very small. A combo of mid and small-cap stocks gives that extra kicker over the boring large-cap growth," he said.

As for the underperformance in the Indian market, Arora said Trump tariffs played a critical role in impacting sentiment, especially among foreign investors.

“Additional tariffs isolated us in the eyes of the world and also for the big picture macro guys. It affected the currency and general sentiment towards India," he concluded.