Asian Paints Gets Lowest Price Target From Morgan Stanley As De-Rating Risks Linger

Asian Paints Ltd. has received its lowest price target yet from Morgan Stanley on Tuesday, with the brokerage slashing its target price on the stock to Rs 1,909 from Rs 2,126 earlier—signalling a potential downside of nearly 15% from current levels.

Morgan Stanley expects Asian Paints to lose approximately 42 basis points of market share in financial year 2025—sharply higher than its previous estimate. Over fiscal 2025–2028, the company could lose around 200 basis points from its share in the decorative segment. Collectively, the top five players excluding Birla Opus are forecast to lose 281 basis points during this period.

The report highlights that while market share in the organised segment remains high—estimated at $10 billion annually with 75–78% held by key players—new entrants are scaling quickly and vying for top positions. Premium valuations, it warns, are at risk as competition drives pricing pressures and raises uncertainty over future outcomes.

The brokerage has also revised the target price of Kansai Nerolac to Rs 212 from earlier Rs 221. On the other hand, it has hiked the target price of Berger Paints to Rs 488 from the earlier Rs 466.

The shares of Asian Paints fell 1.17% to Rs 2,221.60 on Tuesday. However, it pared losses to trade 0.90% lower at Rs 2,227.60. This compares to a 0.07% decline in the NSE Nifty 50 Index.

It has fallen 24.24% in the last 12 months and 2.45% year-to-date. Total traded volume so far in the day stood at 1.2 times its 30-day average. The relative strength index was at 35.29.

Out of 38 analysts tracking the company, six maintain a 'buy' rating, 10 recommend a 'hold', and 22 suggest 'sell', according to Bloomberg data. The average 12-month consensus price target implies an upside of 2.3%.