Trump Says 50-50 Odds Of Trade Deal With European Union

President Donald Trump put the odds of striking a trade deal with Europe to reduce the tariff rate on their imports at 50-50, even as diplomats from the trading bloc have expressed optimism in recent days that an agreement could be near.

“I would say that we have a 50-50 chance, maybe less than that, but a 50-50 chance of making a deal with the EU,” Trump told reporters Friday before departing for a golf trip to Scotland. 

Trump added that US and EU negotiators were working “closely” to strike a deal.

Trump earlier this month issued a letter saying the EU would face a 30% tariff on most goods if they fail to reach an agreement by Aug. 1, in addition to sector-specific tariffs. Trump has hit cars and auto parts with a 25% customs tax, and steel and aluminum with a rate double that. He’s also threatened to target pharmaceuticals and semiconductors with new duties as early as next month, and recently announced a 50% duty on copper.

European negotiators are optimistic they can strike a deal that would set a 15% baseline for most exports, with hopes that duties at that level would also cover categories like automobiles that are facing industry-specific duties. They also hope to set a quota for lower tariffs for some steel and aluminum products.

The EU may also receive limited carve-outs linked to aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and manufacturing equipment.

Trump told reporters that he also expected to issue additional letters unilaterally setting tariff rates on other nations in the coming days, and expressed confidence that upcoming trade talks in Stockholm with China could yield more progress.

The US and China have the “confines of a deal,” Trump said.