The doubling of India's e-commerce market in the next three years is set to propel the unified payment interface as the leading form of payment and slash the use of cash, according to a report by FIS Inc.
UPI has "almost become the default payment option" among individuals, the company said. While cash is still an option, the majority of peer-to-peer transactions are done through the payment system.
"The success of UPI in India is changing consumers' payment preferences faster than anyone could have predicted," said Phil Pomford, senior vice president and general manager, Global eCom, Worldpay Merchant Solutions at FIS.
"The development of real-time payment schemes by other central banks—and, critically, the cooperation between those central banks—is also helping to fuel cross-border commerce, providing merchants with a significant opportunity for growth moving forward," he said.
The Indian e-commerce market is projected to grow from $83 billion in 2022 to $150 billion in 2026, effectively doubling, the American financial services provider said.
The e-commerce market size is expected to grow by 82% by 2026, providing a greater boost to digital payments, the report said.
With this, account-to-account payments are projected to increase their share in e-commerce payment methods from 15% in 2022 to 24% in 2026, FIS said.
Cash is expected to decline by 34% in transaction value and digital wallets are expected to rise in transaction value by 88% by 2026, according to data released by FIS.
Hard cash accounted for 71% of point of sale transaction value in 2019. However, it dropped to represent just 27% transaction value in 2022 and is set to fall to 14% by 2026.
UPI's seamless interoperability with commercial wallets such as Google Pay, Paytm and PhonePe, has helped digital wallets grow from 5% point of sale market share in 2019 to 35% in 2022.
The payment system reported a transaction value of nearly Rs 13 lakh crore in January 2023, according to National Payments Corporation of India.