M&M Sees Faster Tractor, SUV Momentum; Jefferies Retains Bullish Call — Check Target Price

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. struck an upbeat tone at its investor day, with Jefferies noting upgrades across its core businesses and reaffirming a 'buy' rating. The brokerage also raised the price target on the counter to Rs 4,500 from Rs 4,300

The company raised its FY25–30 tractor industry growth outlook from 7% to 9% CAGR, citing stronger demand tailwinds driven by improved profitability for cash and horticulture crops and a better price–labour cost trade-off after the GST cut. Mahindra expects the tractor installed base to rise to 12.2 million by fiscal 2030, against a full potential of 17–24 million, and highlighted international expansion, particularly in Brazil, North America and Thailand, as a key growth driver. The company also clarified it does not plan to split its farm and auto businesses in the next five years.

On the auto side, Mahindra reiterated a robust SUV launch pipeline. A seven-seater EV, the XEV 9S, arrives in November, followed by one ICE and one BEV model in 2026. Mahindra is pushing to expand SUV exports to South Africa, Australia and the UK, and is targeting 20% consolidated auto revenue CAGR over the next four fiscals, led by faster growth in SUVs. However, Jefferies flagged meeting 2027 CAFE emission norms as a key profitability risk.

Mahindra expects the LCV segment to pick up meaningfully post the GST cut. The category has faced demand pressure after a 25–30% price escalation over five years, but the tax reduction should ease this burden. Mahindra is already seeing gains, with LCV market share rising from 36% in FY22 to 46% in the first half of this year; it had earlier guided for low double-digit growth in the current fiscal.

The company is also bullish on its “growth gems,” including Last Mile Mobility (electric three-wheelers), Mahindra Aerospace with its $1.1 billion order book, Mahindra Holidays and Accelo—each expected to generate strong long-term value.

Jefferies expects Mahindra to deliver 13% volume CAGR and 20% core EPS CAGR by fiscal 2028. The brokerage sees valuations staying elevated given the company’s improving franchise and multi-engine growth profile.