Eli Lilly's Weight-Loss Drug Mounjaro Gets Thumbs Up From JM Financial — Here's Why

Eli Lilly introduced Mounjaro, also known as Zepbound, in India for the management of obesity and diabetes. JM Financial is bullish on the weight-loss drug's success in India, citing its price advantage, higher efficiency and the country's large addressable market.

The rollout of Mounjaro in the Indian market poses a possible immediate threat to insulin sales as well, the financial services firm said in a note issued this week.

Here are the key points it highlighted on Eli Lilly's India bet.

Eli Lilly has priced Mounjaro competitively against options like Semaglutide. The 2.5 milligram vial of Mounjaro is priced at Rs 3,500, while 5 milligram is available for Rs 4,375.

This makes the total monthly cost for weight management range from INR 14,000 to INR 17,000. In contrast, the imported cost of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy or Ozempic is a lot higher, ranging from Rs 30,000 to Rs 80,000, JM Financial said.

This considerable price difference positions Mounjaro as a more accessible option for patients in India, it added.

Clinical data suggests that Mounjaro demonstrates superior efficacy compared to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy or Ozempic.

The brokerage noted that studies have shown an average weight reduction of 20% with Mounjaro, while Novo's product has demonstrated an average weight reduction of 13%.

This could make Mounjaro a preferred treatment option for both obesity and diabetes management. While Novo Nordisk was anticipated to launch its product in India next year, the introduction of Mounjaro may bring about an earlier market entry.

The patent for Wegovy, which contains Semaglutide, is scheduled to expire in March 2026. This patent expiration is expected to make way for the entry of many generic manufacturers into the market, JM Financial said.

Industry analysts predict that this rise in competition will likely lead to a substantial reduction in the cost of treatment, up to 50-70%, it pointed out.

Currently, combinations of gliptin and gliflozin, which are used for diabetes management, cost between Rs 400 and Rs 1,800 per month, based on dosage.

The introduction of Mounjaro in India is expected to have an immediate negative impact on the growth of insulin sales, according to JM Financials.

The use of Glucagon-like Peptide-1 like drugs, such as Mounjaro, has the potential to delay the need for insulin therapy in patients with advanced Type 2 diabetes, it said.

Sanofi and Novo Nordisk, through its affiliate Associated International Laboratories, are the leading suppliers of insulin in India. They are also closely followed by companies such like Lupin, Cipla, and Wockhardt.

Currently, the price points for GLP-1 products are relatively high compared to oral treatment options available for diabetes management. The prices are set to decrease once generic versions enter the market following the patent expiry of Semaglutide, JM Financial said.

And if companies like Lupin and Eris, which have significant exposure to the diabetes market in India, do not generate substantial sales from their generic versions, their growth in the Indian market could be affected in the medium term, it added.

The anti-diabetic market in India is currently valued at Rs 20,600 crore, and oral treatments account for the majority of this market coming up to 74%, JM Financial noted.

Insulin accounts for approximately 23%, and GLP-1 receptor agonists currently represent 2% of the market, it added.

The obese population in India is estimated to be around 80 million, as reported by the Lancet. Furthermore, there is an expectation that the use of Mounjaro may expand beyond its currently approved indications, the note stated.

While Mounjaro is presently approved for individuals with a Body Mass Index of 30 or greater, it is expected that individuals with a BMI between 25 and 30 can also begin using the medication, JM Financial said.