Swiggy Q4 Results Review: Food Delivery Steady But Quick Commerce Drags
While UBS remains bullish on operational leverage from maturing dark stores, other brokerages suggest a longer and more uncertain path to profitability for Swiggy.
Swiggy’s fourth quarter results drew a mixed response from brokerages, with divergent views on its growth prospects and profitability trajectory—particularly in the quick commerce segment.
Analysts highlighted Swiggy’s relatively stable food delivery business but concerns around sustained losses in quick commerce remain dominant. While UBS remained bullish on operational leverage from maturing dark stores, other brokerages suggest a longer and more uncertain path to profitability.
Here is what analysts have to say.
UBS
Maintained a 'buy' rating with a target price of Rs 465.
Food delivery performance was in line.
Quick commerce losses were higher due to aggressive dark store expansion.
Margins expected to improve as newer stores scale with more daily orders.
Macquarie
Macquarie retained an 'underperform' rating with a target price of Rs 260.
Fourth quarter went "from bad to worse", according to the brokerage.
Management pushed back breakeven timeline to 3–5 quarters from earlier December 2025 guidance.
Instamart faces intense competition, making profitability guidance seem optimistic.
Margin gap with Zomato narrowing, but long-term economics still weak.
Ambit
Ambit maintained 'sell' and cut target price to Rs 292 from Rs 310.
Food delivery growth was muted but quick commerce losses continued to mount.
Instamart lags Blinkit on key performance metrics despite a larger footprint.
Overall loss stood at Rs 1,080 crore with negative free cash flow projected at Rs 2,900 crore for financial year 2025.
Breakeven for Instamart now expected by financial year 2029, two years behind company guidance.
Swiggy’s valuation lowered on concerns over limited addressable market and prolonged cash burn.
Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal maintained 'neutral' rating and lowered target price to Rs 340 from Rs 380.
Food delivery GOV grew 17.6% year-on-year; adjusted Ebitda improved to 2.9%.
Instamart’s GOV was up 101% year-on-year, but adjusted Ebitda margin dipped to -18%, missing expectations.
Management believes quick commerce losses have peaked and expects sequential improvement in contribution margins.
Bolt (10-minute delivery) now contributes 12% of food delivery orders.
Megapod and Maxxsaver strategies seen as potential levers to improve AOV and margins.
