'History Repeats': CA Recalls 2011 Silver Crash To Warn Investors Against Greed, Cites THIS Timeless Rule
CA Nitin Kaushik compares silver’s rise in 2011 to now, in 2025, highlighting the importance of booking 'partial profits' instead of being greedy and chasing last gains.
Chartered Accountant and tax expert Nitin Kaushik recalled the dramatic swings in silver prices during 2011, comparing them to the recent dizzying rally picked up by the white metal. The CA highlighted that investors can learn some wise lessons from the 2011 silver crash and book 'partial profits' instead of chasing last minute gains in today's market scenario.
Recalling those days, Kaushik stated, “Silver looked unstoppable. Charts gleamed, analysts were bullish and traders felt they had cracked the code to endless profits. But markets don’t whisper before they turn, they roar after losses wipe you out.”
On April 29, 2011, silver settled for about $47.9 per ounce, its highest since 1980. Excitement was widespread, with calls for silver to $100 next ringing on social media. The metal had spiked almost 400% over three years. Each downturn was snapped up and warnings were ignored.
However, things changed soon. After the news of Osama Bin Laden’s killing in May 2011, global risk appetite disappeared. Commodities collapsed. Kaushik said that MCX opened down by 4% and silver fell from $48 to $33 in just five sessions. “A 31% crash faster than many could react.” The unexpected decline caused margin calls, broker panic and client defaults.
September 2011 saw more chaos. Silver fell sharply from $44 to $26 in around 15 sessions, a 40% decline that took even seasoned traders by surprise. The metal that used to be called “white gold” seemed very fragile, Kaushik added.
Fast forward to today, silver continues to surprise with sudden moves. Recently, MCX silver futures dropped nearly 10% in a single day, from Rs 1,70,000 to Rs 1,53,000 per kilogram. “Different times, same market emotions. Markets forget, but history repeats,” Kaushik said.
He emphasised one important point for investors. He suggested that when an asset reaches a multi-year high after a long period, “book partial profits.” Sacrificing the pursuit of the last 30% can help protect against a potential 70% loss.
Kaushik added that markets are driven by sentiment and not just by figures. While greed can push prices sky high quickly, fear can turn trends around just as quickly. He also referred to a larger trend of over 45 years on assets such as silver, Nasdaq, Nifty and gold. “Every euphoric rally ends with exhaustion. Patience and risk management survive cycles. Those chasing last gains often lose the biggest chunk,” he said.
“Next time you see a multi-year breakout, it’s not a sprint to the top. Book some profits, breathe, then look for the next 40-50% opportunity elsewhere. Markets never die, they just shift leadership. There’s always a new bull somewhere.”
On Thursday, Oct. 23, silver prices stood at Rs 1,59,000 per kilogram in India.
