Trump's Claims Of Peacemaking And Emerging US-India-Pakistan Scenario

Speaking from the Oval Office during an event marking Elon Musk’s departure from the Department of Government Efficiency on May 30, US President Donald Trump repeated his claim that he used trade to broker the India-Pakistan ceasefire and had averted a nuclear disaster.

Time and again, India has said that the decision to cease hostilities came solely through military-level discussions and that the US had no role in the ceasefire. Despite repeated and categorical denials from India, Trump continues to push the narrative of having played the role of a peacemaker in the India-Pakistan conflict. Naturally, the question which is being asked all across India is: Why is Trump trying to take credit when India has repeatedly rejected his claim?

Trump's stubborn insistence is because he is trying to reinforce his image as a peacemaker, which has taken a beating. As John Bolton, Trump’s former National Security Advisor, said, "It's nothing personal to India. This is Donald Trump, who takes credit for everything," adding, "I think he did have a call with Prime Minister Modi, and Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were also on the call. I'm sure other countries might also be calling to see what they can do. It's typical of Trump because he would jump in before everyone else could take credit. It may be irritating and probably is irritating to many people, but it's nothing against India; it's just Trump being Trump."

Bolton appears correct in his assessment of Trump's behaviour. Since Trump's much-touted efforts to end the wars between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas have not yielded any real results till now, the India-Pakistan conflict and the ceasefire which brought it to an end gave Trump a much-needed chance to restate his claim that he is a peacemaker 'par excellence'.

After his stunning electoral victory in the Nov. 5 presidential elections, Trump had said that his administration will focus on ending the Russia-Ukraine war. He had also said that his administration would work to bring peace to West Asia. "We're going to work on the Middle East, and we're going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It's got to stop," Trump said.

It may be recalled that during his campaign, Trump said repeatedly that he would be able to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in 24 hours” upon taking office. However, Trump has changed his tone since becoming president for a second term. On March 14 this year, he said that he was “being a little bit sarcastic” when he repeatedly claimed as a candidate that he would have the Russia-Ukraine war solved within 24 hours. Later, on April 18, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “We are now reaching a point where we need to decide whether this is even possible or not,” and Trump agreed with him.

Sadly, the Ukraine-Russia war has continued to rage, taking an increasingly dangerous and destructive course as Vladimir Putin intensifies his assault with a relentless barrage of drones and missiles. Thus, Trump's rhetoric about solving the Russia-Ukraine war 'in 12 hours' has ended up as a hollow, empty claim.

Unfortunately, the same has also happened in the case of the Israel-Hamas war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained that the war in Gaza will not end until all hostages are freed and Hamas is either dismantled or forced into exile. He has also stated that Israel intends to retain indefinite security control over Gaza and support what he calls the 'voluntary emigration' of a significant portion of its population. On its part, Hamas has insisted it will only release the remaining hostages in exchange for a lasting ceasefire, the release of more Palestinian prisoners, and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Meanwhile, Israel has continued its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. At least forty-four people were killed in Israeli raids on May 29 and another 12 people the next day. Thus, this conflict also continues to rage despite Trump having been president in his second term since Jan. 20.

The US has recently proposed a fresh peace plan, and the Trump administration has said that Israel has accepted the plan. Hamas has said that it is reviewing the latest US proposal for a new ceasefire in Gaza and hostage release deal, though reports suggest the Palestinian armed group may reject it. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said the proposal favoured the Israeli position and failed to meet any of Hamas' key demands, chiefly a commitment from Israel to end the war, withdraw its forces from Gaza and permit unrestricted aid access to the territory. He added that the proposed deal "does not respond to any of our people's demands, foremost among which is stopping the war and famine."

Against this background, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan gave Trump a unique opportunity to tout his claim to being a great global peacemaker. Given his failure to end the deadly Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars, Trump saw this ceasefire, which took place on May 10, as something which he needed to use to his advantage. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said, “After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both countries on using common sense and great intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” 

Soon after Trump's post, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced at a special briefing that the Director General of Military Operations of Pakistan had initiated a call with his Indian counterpart and both sides had agreed to “stop all firing and military action on land and in the air and sea”. He made no mention of the United States.

However, two days later, Trump again claimed that he was the one who ‘stopped’ a possible nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan after the two countries got engaged in a series of cross-border attacks following Operation Sindoor initiated by India as a retaliation to the Pahalgam terror attack. Trump said that he promised to do a ‘lot of trade’ with India and Pakistan, after which the countries agreed to a ceasefire.”

There have been some more recent occasions when Trump has doubled down on his claim that it was he who mediated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. On May 22, speaking at the White House's Oval Office during a meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump said, "If you take a look at what we just did with Pakistan and India, we settled that whole, and I think I settled it through trade."

On May 29, at a hearing before the US Trade Court in New York, in signed statements submitted by Trump and some of his other senior officials, the US administration claimed that the president had used his tariff power to broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after both nuclear-powered neighbours were involved in a conflict. They also urged the court to uphold the tariff power, saying the legal setback could revive the India-Pakistan conflict.

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, even more recently, on May 30, while addressing a press conference along with Tesla CEO and billionaire Elon Musk, who was demitting the DOGE office, Trump said that he had used trade pressure as leverage to halt the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan.

India has repeatedly refuted Trump's claim that the threat of 'no trade with the US' led to the ceasefire. India has categorically said that it was the force of arms that “compelled” Pakistan to “stop its firing”. At a press briefing on May 13, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, “From the time Operation Sindoor commenced on May 7 till the understanding on cessation of firing and military action on May 10, there were conversations between Indian and US leaders on the evolving military situation. The issue of trade did not come up in any of these discussions.” This has been India's consistent position all along. India has stressed that the cessation of firing was decided upon through direct contacts between the DGMOs of India and Pakistan.

In addition to claiming that he had mediated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, Trump has also offered to mediate on the long-standing Kashmir dispute. He said on his Truth Social platform, "I will work with you both to see if, after a “thousand years,” a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir."  Pakistan immediately welcomed Trump’s offer to mediate between India and Pakistan. Appreciating what it described as the "constructive role played by the United States" in the ceasefire talks, the Pakistan government said, "We also appreciate President Trump’s expressed willingness to support efforts aimed at the resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute." Pakistan said that it is a longstanding issue and has serious implications for peace and security in South Asia and beyond. It further stressed that the government "reaffirms that any just and lasting settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute must be in accordance with the relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions and must ensure the realisation of the fundamental rights of the Kashmiri people, including their inalienable right to self-determination".

However, India outright rejected Trump's offer, making it clear that it does not want anyone to mediate when it comes to Kashmir. India said, "We have a very clear position on Kashmir; there is only one matter left — the return of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. There is nothing else to talk about. If they talk about handing over terrorists, we can talk. We don't have any intention of discussing any other topic. We don't want anyone to mediate. We don't need anyone to mediate."

How will Trump react to India's denials of his claims? It is quite likely that Trump may view India’s rebuttals as a personal affront rather than a routine diplomatic clarification. He might even restate his claim even more publicly and forcefully while also exerting more and more pressure on India on various issues, including trade and geopolitics. In this regard, it is also pertinent to note that a new proximity seems to be emerging between Trump and Pakistan.

It may be recalled that in January 2018, when Trump was in his first term, he had tweeted that "The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!” This was perhaps the most severe public indictment ever of Pakistan by a US president.

However, Trump is now playing a different tune about Pakistan. In his post in which he took credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire, he complimented the leaderships of both countries, saying, "I am very proud of the strong and unwaveringly powerful leadership of India and Pakistan for having the strength, wisdom, and fortitude to fully know and understand that it was time to stop the current aggression that could have led to the death and destruction of so many and so much."  He also said that he wants to increase trade with both India and Pakistan. 

There are reports which suggest that there is a hidden motive behind Trump's sudden change of heart and his new soft corner for Pakistan. Reportedly, Pakistan has sought to curry favour with Trump by promising lucrative business deals to his family and friends. These reportedly include discussions over cryptocurrency ventures and access to mineral resources — both highly strategic domains.

 Pakistan's economy remains in shambles and ever dependent on IMF bailouts, and hence it is trying hard to find new avenues of growth.  In February 2025, the Pakistan government formed a Crypto Council and later upgraded it to a full regulatory body called the Pakistan Digital Asset Authority. This new authority will oversee and regulate digital assets like crypto and blockchain-based technologies. In this regard, Pakistan is seizing the opportunity to develop closeness to World Liberty Financial Inc. (WLFI), a crypto venture reportedly majority-owned by Trump and his family.

Naturally, Trump’s interest in Pakistan’s crypto push has grown due to his family business stakes, the opportunity to showcase Trump-linked crypto ventures globally, and the potential for geopolitical leverage. The Pakistani leadership feels that Trump's involvement in Pakistan could help legitimise the country’s crypto industry and attract further international investment.

How will such a complex scenario affect Indo-US ties? On balance, the future of these ties remains strong and multifaceted, driven by shared strategic interests, growing economic cooperation, and increasing cultural exchange. The US and India are likely to deepen their defence partnership, focusing on technology, joint exercises, and military cooperation. India's designation as a Major Defence Partner provides specific privileges in defence trade and security cooperation. The US and India are aiming to significantly increase bilateral trade, with a goal of reaching $500 billion by 2030. This will likely involve efforts to reduce trade barriers and attract more investment from both countries. Collaboration in areas like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space technology is expected to continue. The INDUS-X platform and now INDUS Innovation are key initiatives in this area.

At the same time, challenges related to trade imbalances, geopolitical differences, and visa issues are impacting the relationship's trajectory. Trump’s 'America First' sloganeering and his transactional approach to diplomacy are already posing challenges for the growth of Indo-US relations. It remains to be seen whether the growing closeness between Trump and Pakistan becomes yet another challenge for India. 

Prabhu Dayal is a retired Indian Foreign Service officer from the 1976 batch, with years of experience in India's diplomatic service.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.