Reliance Industries Q2 Results Live: Net Profit Likely At Rs 21,368 Crore; O2C Business May Lead Growth

Shares of RIL closed as much as 0.21% lower during the day at Rs 1,164.9 apiece on the NSE. This compares with a 0.15% advance in the benchmark Nifty 50. The shares have fallen 2.11% in one week and 1.86% in one month. The shares are down 26.07% year-to-date and 21.7% in one year.

Reliance Retail is expected to post subdued earnings despite top-line growth, facing margin compression. Kotak projects retail revenue to grow 11.7% YoY, even as EBITDA falls 0.8% YoY. On a sequential basis, however, EBITDA is expected to rebound by 7.2%.

Nomura expects the Jio’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) to climb to Rs 219, up from Rs 215.6 in the preceding June quarter, matching Emkay’s expectation of a 1% sequential improvement. This expansion is expected to be fueled by robust subscriber additions, rising data demand, and greater uptake of premium digital services.

"Investors will track Reliance Industries’ Q2 results on Friday, with market expectations centred on refining margins and Jio’s performance. Following Jio Platforms’ strong listing at a 21% premium earlier this week, investors will assess the telecom business’s earnings contribution and operating performance," said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Driven by record middle distillate crack spreads, Nomura projects Reliance Industries to report 17% year-on-year Ebitda growth in quarter ended September. Segment earnings are led by O2C ( 38% YoY) and Digital ( 16% YoY), counterbalancing minor declines in O&G (-6%) and Retail (-1%).

Despite freight cost pressures, RIL benefits from higher throughput ( 10% QoQ), stable ethane pricing, and SAED exemptions. Nomura retains a 'BUY' rating with a target price of Rs 1,766, pointing to a sustained "golden refining era".

Fresh off its market debut, Jio Platforms faces its first major test as a public company today. All eyes will be on the Mukesh Ambani-led giant's September-quarter earnings to determine whether its growth trajectory backs up its steep valuation.

Beyond the quarterly numbers, investors will track Reliance Industries' commentary on its new energy business, capital expenditure plans and debt position. The company's investments across energy, retail and digital services remain important to its longer-term growth strategy. Management's guidance on the pace of spending and the expected returns from these investments will be closely watched.

The outlook for refining and petrochemical margins, retail growth and Jio's tariff strategy will also help determine whether the anticipated improvement in consolidated Ebitda can be sustained.

The digital services business is expected to report Ebitda of Rs 21,889 crore, up 3% sequentially from Rs 21,255 crore. The segment is likely to deliver steady growth, with investors watching for updates on subscriber trends, JioFiber expansion and the outlook for tariff increases ahead of the proposed Jio IPO.

Any indication of a potential tariff hike could influence expectations for revenue growth and profitability in the digital business.

Reliance Industries' oil and gas exploration business is expected to report flat Ebitda of Rs 4,973 crore, unchanged from the previous quarter. Declining production is likely to weigh on the segment, limiting its contribution to the company's overall sequential growth.

Management's commentary on production trends and the outlook for the business will be important in assessing whether the pressure is likely to persist.

Reliance Retail's Ebitda is estimated to rise 7% sequentially to Rs 6,784 crore from Rs 6,309 crore. However, the business is expected to remain relatively subdued, with the shift in the festive season likely to weigh on growth and result in a lower Ebitda margin.

Investors will look for indications of a pickup in retail growth, particularly as the company navigates seasonal demand patterns and works to sustain profitability.

Reliance Industries' O2C segment is expected to report Ebitda of Rs 20,082 crore, up 18% from Rs 17,010 crore in the June quarter. The segment is likely to benefit from stronger earnings at its special economic zone (SEZ) refinery, which is expected to avoid the impact of windfall taxes, along with contributions from US ethane-based petrochemical operations and a weaker rupee.

Investors will watch management's commentary on crude sourcing strategy and the outlook for refining and petrochemical margins. Developments in global crude markets and product spreads could influence the segment's performance in the coming quarters.

• Commentary on crude sourcing strategy
• Margin outlook in refinery and petchem
• Growth pickup in retail
• Outlook of new energy business
• Commentary on tariff hike ahead of Jio IPO
• Jio Fiber growth
• Commentary on capex outlay and debt

• O2C EBITDA seen up 18% QoQ at Rs 20082 crore vs Rs 17010 crore
• Retail EBITDA seen up 7% to Rs 6784 crore vs Rs 6309 crore
• Oil & Gas (gas exploration) EBITDA seen flat at Rs 4973 crore vs Rs 4973 crore
• Digital services EBITDA seen up 3% to Rs 21889 crore vs Rs 21255 crore

Reliance Industries Q2FY27 Preview (Consolidated; QoQ)

• Revenue seen up 1.4% at Rs 313700 crore vs Rs 309468 crore
• EBITDA seen up 9% to Rs 51942 crore vs Rs 47517 crore
• EBITDA Margin seen at 16.6% vs 15.4%
• Net profit seen up 2% at Rs 21368 crore vs Rs 20946 crore

Reliance Industries Ltd. is expected to report a modest increase in consolidated revenue and net profit for the September quarter, with the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business likely to lead sequential growth, according to estimates.

The O2C business is expected to be the primary driver of the improvement, supported by stronger refining earnings, petrochemical operations and currency movements. However, relatively muted retail performance and continued weakness in oil and gas production could limit growth across other segments.