RBI’s Softer LCR Guidelines Are Positive Surprise As Analysts See System-Wide Liquidity Support
Macquarie, Morgan Stanley and CLSA are optimistic on the revised LCR norms calling it a material positive for banks.
Brokerages were unanimous on Tuesday in their endorsement of the Reserve Bank of India’s final Liquidity Coverage Ratio guidelines, calling the revised framework a marked departure from the tighter draft and a significant liquidity tailwind for banks.
What RBI Announced
Late on Monday, the central bank finalised its LCR framework, softening its stance from the draft proposal. It reduced the additional run-off rate for internet and mobile banking-enabled retail deposits to 2.5%, compared to the 5% suggested earlier. It also avoided differentiating between stable and less-stable deposits, choosing a flat structure instead. The new rules take effect from April 1, 2026.
Macquarie: Liquidity Bonanza To Support Credit Cycle
The brokerage says the final guidelines unlock Rs 2.5–3 lakh crore of deployable liquidity, translating into a potential 1.4–1.6% boost to credit growth. The brokerage had earlier flagged the draft norms as overly stringent, estimating a 1,000 basis point hit to system LCR. By contrast, the final norms are expected to improve system LCR by 600 bps.
Macquarie also highlighted broader regulatory relaxations in recent months—including easing risk weight norms for NBFCs and changes to priority sector lending—that collectively support loan growth in a weak demand environment.
Morgan Stanley: Positive Surprise, Margin Uplift Likely
The final LCR guidelines are a “material positive,” projecting a net 6 percentage point boost to LCRs based on December 2024 data, the brokerage noted. It expects easing in liquidity requirements, especially the lower run-off for trust and partnership deposits, to benefit banks with a higher share of these deposits.
The brokerage estimates a 1–2% rise in loan growth and a 2–4bps margin uplift over time. It also sees some benefits starting to reflect in fiscal 2026 earnings, ahead of the April 2026 implementation date.
CLSA: Rs 2.5 Lakh Crore Liquidity Unlock
CLSA termed the move “another boost to liquidity,” estimating a Rs 2.5 lakh-crore release in excess high-quality liquid assets, which banks could redeploy into loans.
While the earnings impact is modest—with net interest margins potentially improving by about 3bps—the guidelines are seen as sentimentally positive. CLSA also flagged a broader shift in the RBI’s regulatory stance, citing a pattern of supportive moves for the banking sector in recent quarters.
