National Stock Exchange (NSE) share price will be in focus on Monday after Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan initiated coverage with Overweight ratings, citing its dominant market position, strong growth prospects and India's expanding capital markets. Both brokerages believe the exchange is well-positioned to benefit from the growing financialisation of household savings and increasing retail participation in equities.
Morgan Stanley has set NSE share price target of Rs 2,315 per share, implying an upside potential of 30% from Friday's closing price. JPMorgan has assigned a target of Rs 2,130 per share, expecting an upside of nearly 20%.
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Morgan Stanley expects NSE's revenue and normalised profit after tax (PAT) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over FY27-FY29. This marks an improvement from the estimated 6% normalised PAT CAGR over FY24-FY27.
The brokerage believes NSE's market share in index options is likely to stabilise at around 65%, following regulatory changes and increased competition from BSE. It highlighted the exchange's dominant liquidity, scalable technology infrastructure and asset-light business model as key strengths.
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NSE reported a normalised operating EBITDA margin of 76.2% in FY26, among the highest globally for large listed exchanges. Morgan Stanley also highlighted its strong cash generation and dividend payouts, with the payout ratio at 84% in FY26.
JPMorgan On NSE: Market Share Stabilisation Key
JPMorgan also initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a target price of Rs 2,130 per share. The brokerage expects NSE's adjusted PAT to grow at a CAGR of approximately 14% over FY27-FY29, with EBITDA margins improving from 75.3% in FY27 to 77.1% in FY29.
JPMorgan noted that NSE commands a 93% share in cash equities and nearly 100% in single-stock derivatives. However, its index options premium market share has declined from around 90% in November 2024 to 66% in September 2026.
The brokerage believes the worst of the market share erosion is behind the exchange, with stabilisation emerging as a key catalyst.
Both brokerages flagged adverse regulatory changes, further market share losses, weaker trading activity and technology-related disruptions as key risks.
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