India's monsoon delivered an unexpected turnaround in July, with rainfall ending the month within the normal range despite forecasts of below-average precipitation and a strengthening El Niño.
Releasing its latest monthly and seasonal outlook on Friday, the India Meteorological Department said the average rainfall over India during August 2026 is most likely to remain below 94% of the long period average. The normal rainfall for August, based on the 1971-2020 climatology, is 254.9 mm, according to reports.
The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during the August to September period, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, is 422.8 mm. LPA refers to the rainfall recorded over a particular region in a given period, such as a month or a season, averaged over a long period, typically 30 to 50 years.
ALSO READ: Monsoon 2026 Fifth Driest In 126 Years As Bihar, Kerala, Telangana Bear The Brunt
As of July 30, India recorded 270.1 mm of rainfall during the month, compared with the long-period average of 271.9 mm. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier projected July rainfall at below 94% of the long-period average.
While the national rainfall figure appeared reassuring, its distribution remained uneven. Central India received 29% excess rainfall, while east and northeast India recorded a 30% deficit and south India remained 28% below normal. Since June 1, the cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit has stood at 14%.
According to a Climate Trends briefing, a series of weather systems during July sharply reduced the national rainfall deficit from 40% at the end of June, easing concerns over a significant monsoon shortfall.
Rainfall remained highly uneven across the country. While 16 meteorological subdivisions recorded normal rainfall and three reported excess to large-excess rainfall, 17 subdivisions remained deficient.
Central India posted a 1% surplus, while northwest India recorded an 11% deficit, with east and northeast India and south India remaining 30% and 25% below normal, respectively.
(With PTI inputs)
ALSO READ: Rainfall Deficit At 39.8%: Sluggish Monsoon Makes June 5th Driest In India Since 1901
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.