The political temperature in West Bengal has soared to an all-time high. The ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the people of Bengal seem to be on edge after exit polls were released ahead of the May 4 results of the Assembly elections.
Six out of eight prominent exit polls suggested that the BJP might finally be able to bring an end to Mamata Banerjee's 15-year rule in Bengal. The state held elections for its 294 seats in two phases on April 9 and April 23. Most exit polls have given an edge to the BJP, projecting it will win over 150 seats.
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Exit polls are surveys carried out immediately after polling to figure out who might win an election. Even though these polls are not always reliable and can be significantly different from actual results, multiple predictions of a BJP sweep have left Chief Minister Banerjee uneasy.
Mamata Banerjee On Exit Polls
“I want to reassure you that what is being shown on TV, that circular was issued from the BJP office at 1:08 p.m. yesterday. Money was paid to show those figures. The media was forced to air it,” she said. “We will cross 226. We may even get 230. I have full faith in how people have voted,” she added.
Her comments followed after pollsters such as Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary, Today's Chanakya - all claimed that the BJP will sweep the polls comfortably.
What Exit Polls Predict
According to the JVC exit poll, the BJP is likely to win between 138 and 159 seats, closely contesting with the TMC, which may win 131 to 152 seats. Matrize reported that the BJP may secure 146 to 161 seats, while the TMC may get around 140 seats. A total of 148 seats are needed to form the government in West Bengal.
Similarly, P-Marq also claimed that the BJP will cross the majority mark by winning at least 150 seats, while Poll Diary predicted 142 to 171 seats for the party. Praja Polls shared a more ambitious projection, claiming the BJP could win at least 178 seats, while Today's Chanakya estimated a range between 181 and 203 seats.
Poor Show For Congress
Janmat Polls and People's Pulse were two survey houses that gave a clear lead to the TMC. According to them, the BJP may have to settle for around 100 seats. Most exit polls predicted a poor performance for the Rahul Gandhi-led Indian National Congress, suggesting the party would win fewer than five seats. If true, this would mark a major defeat for the party, which decided to fight all seats alone and ditched its decade-old ties with the Left.
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The Assembly elections in Bengal were held this time amid the controversial Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. As a result, the electorate reduced from 7.66 crore to just over 7.04 crore, changing the state's electoral landscape. Many of these deletions are in border districts and urban areas, which are politically sensitive, according to news agency PTI.
The TMC has called the process politically motivated and unfair. It remains to be seen how the results of these districts turn out and which party benefits in the May 4 results.
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