Kharif sowing has continued to rise in the past week, despite rainfall turning weaker during the same period, Dolat Capital outlined in a research note.
The strengthening of sowing trends has made coarse cereals to turn surplus and oilseeds to narrow its gap sharply, even as rice and cotton continued to lose ground.
Area sown for rice reached 426.8 lakh hectare (ha), compared to 443.8 lakh ha a year ago, with the gap stretching further to 17.0 lakh ha from 16.4 lakh ha, its weakest showing of the season yet.
Rainfall, however, thinned further with the seasonal deficit expanding to 15% from 14% in the previous week and reservoir storage falling sharply in relative terms even as it stayed flat in absolute terms.
In its outlook, the brokerage mentioned mixed impacts for different regions in India.
"Looking ahead, IMD points to a mixed fortnight, with Central and West India, and the Northeast likely to stay active while the Peninsula remains subdued, as a strengthening El Niño and a neutral IOD continue to keep the season's downside risk alive," Dolat pointed out.
Notably, one of the sharpest reversal with the deficit widening to -29% from -24%, as the low-pressure system that had been supporting the region moved on and weakened.
The share of area recording deficient rainfall rose to 51% from 49%, while large-deficient areas remained nil. The area receiving normal rainfall declined to 44% from 46%, with the excess category holding steady at 5% remaining little changed.
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Rainfall Outlook
The brokerage noted that IMD's extended-range forecast points to continued non-uniformities across the country. While parts of the Northeast, are expected to see fairly widespread rainfall over the coming week, the Southern Peninsula will continue to see muted activity
Further, moderate El Niño conditions continue to prevail, with IMD forecast pointing to further strengthening through the remainder of the monsoon season. The IOD remains neutral and is expected to stay that way and against this backdrop, the picture has turned more mixed this week.
"While sowing gains have broadened further, both rainfall and reservoir storage lost ground relative to normal, with the South Peninsula in particular seeing a sharp deterioration on both fronts, leaving the season's overall cushion somewhat thinner heading into the final stretch of the monsoon," the noted concluded.
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