The number of cyclones affecting India's coasts is declining, but the very intense ones are holding steady or rising, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has said.
He added that this year's unusually low count is linked to a strong El Niño.
Speaking to NDTV as Cyclone Murasu approaches the Andhra Pradesh coast, Mohapatra said the storm is "only the second cyclone this year", after Cyclone Arnab. India typically sees four to five cyclones annually, he said.
-
Indian Markets Turning Corner After Two Tough Years, Says Sandeep Tandon -
NDTV Profit Ignite 2026: Experts See Opportunity In Equities, Stay Bullish For Long-Term -
Buy Right, Sit Tight Does Not Work for Individual Stocks, Says Dinshaw Irani -
'Worst Is Behind': Quant MF Sees Market Bottom, Flags 'Extreme Euphoria' In Midcaps -
India's Mutual Fund Industry Could Become A $1 Trillion Opportunity, Say Fund Managers -
'Foreign Investors Are Baraatis': Raamdeo Agrawal's Take On LTCG Tax -
Stay Invested Through Market Cycles: Raamdeo Agrawal at NDTV Profit Ignite -
Ramesh Damani Remains Bullish On India For Next 20-30 Years, Sees Bargains Amid Market Weakness -
CAS Came After A Long Consultation Process: SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey AT NDTV PROFIT IGNITE -
Aim To Cut FPI Onboarding Time From Mth To Five Days: SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey AT NDTV PROFI
Three to four usually form between October and December, and one to two in the pre-monsoon months of April to June. This year, none formed in the pre-monsoon or monsoon seasons.
El Niño's Role
Mohapatra said El Niño years generally bring a below-average number of cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Such storms tend to be weaker, with shorter tracks and shorter lifespans, and mainly affect Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, and occasionally Sri Lanka.
"This year, El Niño conditions have been quite strong, which is why there have been fewer cyclones than usual—only two," he said.
La Niña years, he said, tend to see cyclones steer towards Odisha, West Bengal, Myanmar and Bangladesh. These storms follow longer paths and are more intense, making their impact more significant.
Fewer Storms, Stronger Ones
On whether climate change is altering the pattern, Mohapatra was direct: "Climate change has an impact on cyclones." He said phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña also play a part.
While the overall number of cyclones along India's coasts is falling, the frequency of very intense storms is stable or increasing. Their numbers are rising in the Arabian Sea and have stayed relatively constant in the Bay of Bengal, he said, specifying that he was referring to extremely severe cyclonic storms.
Slower Landfalls, Greater Impact
Mohapatra also flagged a trend in how cyclones behave near the east coast. As they approach, their forward speed tends to slow, which means a storm of the same intensity can cause far greater damage.
ALSO READ | School Holiday Today: Are Schools Open Or Closed In Chennai As Heavy Rains Lash City Amid Cyclone Murasu?
He cited Cyclone Arnab, which took six hours to complete landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast. "When a cyclone's speed decreases, the impact of its winds and rainfall intensifies significantly," he said, describing this as the IMD's conclusion on climate change.
Murasu Outlook
Murasu is forecast to cross the south Andhra Pradesh coast as a severe cyclonic storm, bringing heavy rain to north Tamil Nadu. Chennai has declared a holiday for schools and colleges as a precaution.
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.