As weak monsoon raises concerns, El nino conditions is expected to pose risks to India's rabi crops, with drier winter conditions potentially limiting soil moisture and an early onset of summer temperatures threatening crop development. The impact could become more strong if El Nino conditions persist into early 2027, resulting in shorter winter and higher temperatures that could affect agricultural output.
In an interaction with NDTV Profit, Gaura Sengupta, Chief Economist, IDFC Bank said El Nino tends to result in drier winter season so the moisture content has impact on the harvest season.
Highlighting impact on rabi crops, Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather Services said, "summer will be early and by March or February, and we will see the temperatures rising, which will adversely impact the the rabi crops as the generally these crops need a prolonged winter season to form the seeds and quality of yield to sustain."
While one or two intense western disturbances could bring heavy snowfall and rainfall to the western Himalayas and adjoining plains, these may not be sufficient to offset the broader moisture deficit, he added.
ALSO READ: El Nino Puts India On Track For Its Driest Monsoon Since 2009
These remarks come as India witnesses a weak monsoon, with cumulative rainfall in India stood 15% below the long-term average as of September 18, while weekly rainfall was 9% below normal. By now, 18 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions have recorded deficient rainfall as southern, eastern and northeastern regions continues to face rainfall shortages, according to Kotak Monsoon Tracker. Meanwhile, El Nino conditions strengthened, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) turned negative in August.
Overall rainfall and impact on agri output
Monsoon rainfall has deficient this year, with June recording a 40% deficit on long-period average (LPA) basis, followed by a 3.5% excess in July. August rainfall recorded 16% below LPA, while September rainfall has so far remained 21% below LPA.
In terms of agriculture, Kharif acreage slipped 1.4% from year-ago levels, while rice acreage dipped 3.8% and pulses acreage rose 1.4%. Cotton and sugarcane acreage dropped 0.9% and 0.7% respectively and reservoir levels stand 9.1% below long-term average.
Retail food prices showed a mixed trend, with cereal prices remain steady on weekly basis, while prices remianed unchanged compared to last week and last year. Pulses prices remain largely stable, prices rose 3% compared with last year.
Meanwhile, vegetable prices continue to see upward pressure as prices rose 1.3% on a week-on-week basis, marking 36.1% jump from year-ago levels. Edible oil inflation remains elevated, with prices climbing 1% over previous week. Prices surge higher by 13.8% year-on-year.
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